tolbob Posted February 12, 2017 Report Posted February 12, 2017 CBS and Realtime have Zips RPI at 36. KenPom has Zips at 97. I know RPI as been criticized, but that much disparity is hard to comprehend. KenPom has Zips ranked NUMBER ONE in "Luck." Maybe that explains the low rating. I am not member of KemPom so I do not understand how luck is calculated. Can anyone explain this? One could argue that an opponent's shooting percentage is lower than their average and that is just being lucky to play them on an off night, but doesn't the defense have something to do with that? Maybe the opponent's free throw shooting percentage is considered pure luck. The opponent's three point shooting may also be play into this because most three point shots are wide open. Help me understand this! Quote
skip-zip Posted February 12, 2017 Report Posted February 12, 2017 (edited) I had posted in another thread that they had us moving rapidly upward in the RPI. We had already moved up 10 spots in a week (after the drop after the OU loss), and now it looks like we've moved up a few more. I get rather exhausted at times the criteria used in some of these rankings, and what they mean. But "Luck"? Is that possibly the idea that we've won several close games? Edited February 12, 2017 by skip-zip Quote
kreed5120 Posted February 12, 2017 Report Posted February 12, 2017 Kenpom formula isn't known, but it is pretty much margin of victory adjusted for SOS, road/home, and other stuff that I'm not exactly sure of. Pretty much the luck rating is derived to show Akron has won more games up to this point than they should have based upon their adjusted net scoring margin. He calls it luck. I call it a flaw in his rating system. I don't feel currently Akron is the 36th best team as RPI suggests. I also don't feel Akron is the 96th. I'd probably put ourselves somewhere in between. Something in the neighborhood of 60. Just keep winning and everything will take care of itself. Quote
Joe Akron Posted February 13, 2017 Report Posted February 13, 2017 Zips are 9-12 vs the spread. Maybe they don't cover enough, so KP calls it "luck" Quote
tolbob Posted February 14, 2017 Author Report Posted February 14, 2017 Zips fell to 99 on KenPom today, but still hang on to the Number One ranking in LUCK. Good comments above. Maybe winning a close game is a luck factor, but going 9-12 against the spread does not appear to be unusual. Neither does having one-third of your wins ( 7 of 21) by 5 points or less. Still a mystery to me. Hate to make a big deal about this, but KenPom may influence those who do the tournament seedlings. Quote
Hilltopper Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 These various methods to determine rankings are schizophrenic. Akron is ranked #168 in SOS but we are #23 in SOS impact for our opponents. Quote
NWAkron Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 It's very hard, no, impossible to take seriously any "formula" that considers "luck" in the equation. I also think any 20 people with little basketball knowledge could probably come up with brackets that are similar to the final product. Just tell them that they have to consider $$$ as a tiebreaker in all cases. Quote
skip-zip Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, NWAkron said: I also think any 20 people with little basketball knowledge could probably come up with brackets that are similar to the final product. Just tell them that they have to consider $$$ as a tiebreaker in all cases. Sad, but true. Unfortunately, like most every year, with the schedule and quality of wins we have this year, we have no other option but to post a win total that's impossible to ignore. Quote
zippy5 Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 We scheduled 2 impossible games and a bunch of cupcakes. Need more in that 30-60 range for some realistic, decent wins. Until then we're in this same crappy spot. Pretty much have to run the table until the MACC get an at large. 1 Quote
kreed5120 Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 Our best opportunities to get those match ups are those OOC tournaments. Unfortunately, we lost musical chairs and got stuck with Air Force, Mercer, Radford, and GA SO. We landed ourselves in a nice tournament next year, but that does us no good this year. Quote
Blue & Gold Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 7 hours ago, zippy5 said: We scheduled 2 impossible games and a bunch of cupcakes. Need more in that 30-60 range for some realistic, decent wins. Until then we're in this same crappy spot. Pretty much have to run the table until the MACC get an at large. This is what frustrates me. The staff just needs to get on the phone w/ every middling P5 school in the country & say we'll come play you at your house, no strings attached. Quote
zippy5 Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Blue & Gold said: This is what frustrates me. The staff just needs to get on the phone w/ every middling P5 school in the country & say we'll come play you at your house, no strings attached. I think we need to shoot for the MTSU, Illinois State's of the world. Teams that are in the same boat as us 1 Quote
tolbob Posted February 14, 2017 Author Report Posted February 14, 2017 Pomeroy ranking dropped to 100 today, but we're still number one in LUCK. I'm trying to make sense of this. Sam Houston State is number 2 in luck. Pomeroy ranking 207. Record 14-8, with only 2 of 14 wins by 5 or less. Hard to figure why they are number 2. Quote
kreed5120 Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 47 minutes ago, tolbob said: Pomeroy ranking dropped to 100 today, but we're still number one in LUCK. I'm trying to make sense of this. Sam Houston State is number 2 in luck. Pomeroy ranking 207. Record 14-8, with only 2 of 14 wins by 5 or less. Hard to figure why they are number 2. Luck is just that their record is better than what sabermetrics say it should be. It doesn't necessarily require close wins. A simplified example is if teams A,B, and C are your opponents and all are deemed "equal" if you lose to team A by 20, but beat team B and C each by 7 that means you are 2-1 with a -6 scoring margin. This means you have over performed as the formula states you should be closer to 1-2, not 2-1. In Sam Houston State's case they have beaten a lot of very bad teams by single digits and Kenpom is declaring their record as fools gold. Quote
tolbob Posted February 14, 2017 Author Report Posted February 14, 2017 Just now, kreed5120 said: Luck is just that their record is better than what sabermetrics say it should be. It doesn't necessarily require close wins. A simplified example is if teams A,B, and C are your opponents and all are deemed "equal" if you lose to team A by 20, but beat team B and C each by 7 that means you are 2-1 with a -6 scoring margin. This means you have over performed as the formula states you should be closer to 1-2, not 2-1. In Sam Houston State's case they have beaten a lot of very bad teams by single digits and Kenpom is declaring their record as fools gold. Thanks for the explanation. That makes as much sense understanding this as anything. The luck rating reminds me of how "lucky" Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson were because every time they pitched the other team had a bad day at the plate. Pure luck. 1 Quote
Captain Kangaroo Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 I hope on this Valentine's Day that Ken Pom has some luck with Barbie Pom. Maybe it would help to take her to Don's Pomeroy House? A little Absolute + POM will get the party started. And remember - You make your own LUCK, Ken. 3 Quote
Sportsjunkie330 Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 Was it last year or the year before that there were folks on ZNO blasting the RPI rankings and saying how big of a joke the RPI is and to follow the Kenpom because it is a better formula and makes so much more sense? To me they all suck - Kenpom, RPI & Bracketology. The so called experts have no clue. They aren't watching these teams. My formula is simple..... Play a tougher OCC & win some games, win the MAC tournament, win a couple of games in the NCAA tourney and earn your own respect. Quit relying on some stupid spreadsheet! 3 Quote
Joe Akron Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 No pom-poms but we do have Pomade Quote
skip-zip Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Sportsjunkie330 said: Quit relying on some stupid spreadsheet! I think we all pay attention to these things for a couple of reasons. 1) We all know that Selection Committees look at them when determining who gets in or out of tournaments, and where people are seeded. 2) Because other basketball fans look at them, you know you are getting a little bit more attention when your ranking starts to get closer to the top. Quote
Dr Z Posted February 14, 2017 Report Posted February 14, 2017 Since the year 2000, the MAC has been a one bid league. The sixteen year average seed for that one bid is 12.4. Without looking at RPI, CBS, SOS, pom-pom, or any other spreadsheet, I'll guess it's the same this year within one either way. 2 Quote
Z.I.P. Posted February 15, 2017 Report Posted February 15, 2017 (edited) Well, it looks like we may just #LuckOut again tonight vs Toledo. Those 14-3 runs late in the second halves will do that! edit: Um, make that 17-3 and building... Edited February 15, 2017 by Z.I.P. Quote
tolbob Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Posted February 15, 2017 Yep, that will strengthen our lock on NUMBER ONE in Luck! 1 Quote
akronzips71 Posted February 15, 2017 Report Posted February 15, 2017 Let me make it easy for you. If we don't lose anther game we are National Champions 1 Quote
tolbob Posted February 15, 2017 Author Report Posted February 15, 2017 8 hours ago, akronzips71 said: Let me make it easy for you. If we don't lose anther game we are National Champions Your are right! I just thought the path would be somewhat easier being seeded 8th rather than 14th in the NCAA tournament. 1 Quote
Dr Z Posted February 15, 2017 Report Posted February 15, 2017 2 hours ago, tolbob said: I just thought the path would be somewhat easier being seeded 8th rather than 14th in the NCAA tournament. When is the last time/decade a MAC team got an 8th seed???? Quote
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