Game One (Wake Forest) Thoughts - 2026

[catdaddyp]

I’m not going to do as in-depth of a take on this game, though will touch on a handful of things.

 

Offense:

CB is a playmaker and will only get better with game experience. His mobility is going to be invaluable to this offense. Also, Roggow looked confident and in command with the backups, which is something every team wants to see out of their backup quarterback, but often isn’t the case. What was even more impressive is that Roggow moved the offense with all backups in around him.

 

I really like what we have at the skill positions and look forward to when the OL starts to gel.

 

Speaking of the OL, they were overwhelmed in the first half against Wake’s ones. Once the twos came in, our OL more than held their own. I think we have some guys in place to have another solid OL, but it’s probably going to take a few games to figure it out.

 

 

Defense:

I’m already on the JD Williams bandwagon. He looked like he belonged and was a load in the middle. However, I didn’t like that he seemed to get gassed so quickly. 

Omari Obor looked explosive against the backups and also when he was left unblocked against the ones. He’ll need to continue to develop as a pass rusher, but he’s going to be difficult for MAC opponents to deal with. Waye and Kavals also had their moments. Outside of those guys, our pass rush and effectiveness against the run was almost nonexistent.

 

I liked what I saw out of Daunte Curtis and Donelius Johnson at linebacker. I believe they should be receiving most of the snaps from here on out.

 

It’s hard to say much about the secondary. They at least tried to play physically, but they were put in bad spots way too often.

 

 

Besides all of the penalties, I think Wake is a solid team that should at least make a bowl game. The Zips came out, fought to the end, and came away with some positives to build on. Next week should be a blowout as Robert Morris just isn’t that good. 
 

 

QB:

Broughton

Roggow

 

RB:

Gant

Patrick

Williams

Curry

 

RWR:

Burris

Myers

 

LWR:

Ma. Williams

Hills

 

SWR:

Sivon

Mason

Hilburn

Louis

 

TE:

Alexander

Cravaack

Hook

 

LT:

Gould

Slayden

Shor

 

LG:

Smith

Archer

Hoskins

 

C

Lyons

Mobley

 

RG:

Hampton

Archer

 

RT:

Jones

Gould

 

 

RDE:

Abor

Waye

 

LDE:

D. Frazier

Waye

 

RDT:

Hull

Williams

Brown-Demery

 

LDT:

Mixon

Kavals

E. Davis

 

MLB:

Jones

D. Johnson

Reeves

 

WLB:

Nunoo 

Curtis

Hocker

 

NB:

AA. Branch 

AL. Branch

Moss

 

RCB:

White

Newsome 

 

LCB:

Thomas

Hobson

 

SS:

Flowers

Davis

 

FS:

Hunter

Davis

 

 

KO/XP:

Stire

 

FG:

Schramm 

 

P:

Castle

 

 

Top Rated Offense (15 snap minimum):

WR Hilburn

WR Ma. Williams

RT Jones

LT Slayden

WR Mason

 

Top Rated Defense (15 snap minimum):

NB AA Branch

LB Nunoo

CB White

DT Williams

S Davis

Edited September 5 by catdaddyp

[LZIp]

I feel OK with last night.
 

-Aside from the Indiana game we blew, this has to be the most points we’ve scored against and only time we beat the spread against a P4 program under this staff.

-We would seem to have multiple competent options at QB..who are only going to get better with more experience. CB is a great running threat, seems to be able to throw the ball accurately, and make smart decisions. Roggow was obviously great in his limited time. Poffenbarger who? 

- I don’t know where everyone stands from an injury standpoint, but I think it’s encouraging that a lot of young/new players seem to be getting snaps over players who have played in the past. To me that means we should be better and the staff does a good job developing the players who stay long enough to be developed. 
- Freshman (either true or redshirt) that I saw receiving significant playing time last night: CB, Luke Sivon, Tairan Davis, Daunte Curtis, Nate Hampton, Jonathan Gould, Vann Kavals. None stuck out to me as not holding their own.
-Aside from CB taking himself out (hopefully nothing serious there), only other injuries I saw were cramps. Still seem healthy.

- my biggest general concern is the defense after last night. DL didn’t get any pressure, but Durham was out and I think we know we have solid guys there. JoeMo raved about the DL in the pregame show. LB rotation should sort itself out pretty quickly. Both Donelius Johnson and Daunte Curtis look like they can be good players in that group. For the DBs, we know Catrell White, Flowers, the Branches, and Terence Thomas can perform in the MAC.

-I didn’t see Omari Bivens get any playing time.

Edited September 4 by LZIp

[catdaddyp]

Player Participation/Depth Chart & PFF now added to original post.
 

I went back and rewatched the first three quarters. When I saw PFF had Nunoo rated so highly, I thought it must be wrong. It wasn’t. Some of the plays I thought Johnson made were actually made by Nunoo. I retract that Curtis should be starting. Although, I do think Curtis should be the third man in the rotation at this time, the starters should definitely be Nunoo and Johnson based off this game.

 

Our secondary tackled well outside of the one busted tackle that led to the long touchdown. I couldn’t tell if that tackle was missed by Moss or Davis. There were a few bad angles taken after catches, though. Coverage was actually pretty solid. It’s just unrealistic to expect coverage to be great when the QB has that much time to throw the ball.

 

On offense, it looked to me like we did not identify several of Wake’s blitzes. There really weren’t a ton of times where we flat out got beat one-on-one in pass protection. However, as mentioned before, we didn’t get much push in the run game either. I was really impressed with RG Hampton. He’s one I doubt we’ll be able to keep around too long. On the other hand, redshirt freshman Gould struggled at LT.

 

One other note is that TE Alexander made some nice blocks on the perimeter.

[zippy5]

Were there any post game comments from Joe on the QB situation?

[Let'sGoZips94]

 

 

[Blue & Gold]

11 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

 

Net Success Rates and it has us over Wake even after a 38-16 loss. What is this graph saying?

[MDZip]

10 hours ago, Blue & Gold said:

Net Success Rates and it has us over Wake even after a 38-16 loss. What is this graph saying?

I had no idea either so I looked it up: 

 

Net success rate in college football is an advanced analytics metric that measures a team's offensive success rate minus its defensive success rate, showing which team performed more efficiently on a play-by-down basis.

What is "Success Rate"?

Before calculating the net version, college football analysts define whether an individual play "succeeds" based on down and distance to keep the chains moving: 

1st Down: Gains at least 50% (or 40% in some models) of the yards needed.

2nd Down: Gains at least 70% (or 60%) of the yards needed.

3rd & 4th Down: Gains 100% of the yards needed to get a first down or score a touchdown.

How Net Success Rate Works

Formula: Offensive Success Rate % – Defensive Success Rate %

Meaning: A positive net success rate means your offense gained "success" on a higher percentage of plays than your defense allowed to the opponent. 

Value: It strips out the "noise" of rare, high-variance plays (like a lucky 80-yard broken tackle touchdown or a freak turnover) to reveal which team actually won the fundamental battle of consistent down-to-down execution. 

 

 

Now I still have no idea. 😂

Edited Wednesday at 07:38 PM by MDZip

[Zips1991]

7 hours ago, Blue & Gold said:

Net Success Rates and it has us over Wake even after a 38-16 loss. What is this graph saying?

My understanding is that it means the game wasn't as bad as the score looks. Even though it can also be said the score was closer than the game actually was since we scored two garbage time TDs to close the gap.

[Let'sGoZips94]

8 hours ago, Blue & Gold said:

Net Success Rates and it has us over Wake even after a 38-16 loss. What is this graph saying?

 

Our first team was very competitive with their second team. 

[MangoZip]

Are they doing the Zips Weekly football show each week this year? 

[GP1]

7 hours ago, MDZip said:

I had no idea either so I looked it up: 

 

Net success rate in college football is an advanced analytics metric that measures a team's offensive success rate minus its defensive success rate, showing which team performed more efficiently on a play-by-down basis.

What is "Success Rate"?

Before calculating the net version, college football analysts define whether an individual play "succeeds" based on down and distance to keep the chains moving: 

1st Down: Gains at least 50% (or 40% in some models) of the yards needed.

2nd Down: Gains at least 70% (or 60%) of the yards needed.

3rd & 4th Down: Gains 100% of the yards needed to get a first down or score a touchdown.

How Net Success Rate Works

Formula: Offensive Success Rate % – Defensive Success Rate %

Meaning: A positive net success rate means your offense gained "success" on a higher percentage of plays than your defense allowed to the opponent. 

Value: It strips out the "noise" of rare, high-variance plays (like a lucky 80-yard broken tackle touchdown or a freak turnover) to reveal which team actually won the fundamental battle of consistent down-to-down execution. 

 

 

Now I still have no idea. 😂

I can help. It's another way of creating data points so degenerate gamblers can bet more on a game while shoving whatever is being advertised into their mouths. 

[LZIp]

2 hours ago, MangoZip said:

Are they doing the Zips Weekly football show each week this year? 

For real. Should be coming any day now if it is. So hard to get information on this team.

[zipsfan33]

On 9/9/2026 at 8:55 PM, LZIp said:

For real. Should be coming any day now if it is. So hard to get information on this team.

I'm still bummed they stopped the radio show 2 years ago.