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Monday Night Predictions

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32 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

I'd jump through the roof if we got a #12.  I think that absolutely went off the board with the 2 home losses.    

 

I think it's important to keep in mind that if you are awarded a #12, you're right on the cusp of having an At-Large if you didn't win your conference tournament.  And we didn't do nearly enough down the stretch to be an At-Large candidate.    

 

A 12 seed was more or less an exaggeration as a lot would have to break our way. Being a 12 seed doesn't mean you are close to being an at-large. It just means you are better than 18 of the other teams that won their conference tournament. Monmouth is a team that would have easily been seeded ahead of us had they won their conference. They lost and now either Sienna or Iona will make it. Neither of those teams would be seeded ahead of us. If you start going down the list of having a Middle Tenn getting upset and a C-USA slot behind or Princeton losing to Penn, we continue to better our seed.

Edited by kreed5120

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32 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Being a 12 seed doesn't mean you are close to being an at-large.

 

Of course it does.  The last of the At-Large teams who play in Dayton are 11's and 12's.  So, why would you say that an Auto Qualifier who also gets a #12 wasn't regarded as being the same caliber by the committee?

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2 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

Of course it does.  The last of the At-Large teams who play in Dayton are 11's and 12's.  So, why would you say that an Auto Qualifier who also gets a #12 wasn't regarded as being the same caliber by the committee?

Because the committee can only seed teams based off of which 68 teams made the pool of 68 teams (32 of which the committee didn't pick). If a bunch of 5 or 6 seeds teams from the 1 bid conferences won their conference tournaments instead of the 1 seeds those 12-16 seed teams would be weaker than if all the 1 seeds won their tournaments. 

 

Just because you are a 12 seed doesn't mean you are one of the perceived 50 best teams in the country. It just means you are perceived to be one of the 50 best teams that made the tournament.

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24 minutes ago, K92 said:

41ab275084ed00dc330f5208422555b63974780e

"SAY 12 SEED ONE MORE TIME."

I don't feel a 12 seed is achievable at this point as we'd obviously need to win the MACT, which is far from a guarantee, and we need pretty much everyone ahead of us to get upset in their tournament to a lesser team. I'm just trying to explain how the process works and how it's impossible to predict where any of the MAC teams would end up until we know who the other AQ are.

Edited by kreed5120

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40 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

Of course it does.  The last of the At-Large teams who play in Dayton are 11's and 12's.  So, why would you say that an Auto Qualifier who also gets a #12 wasn't regarded as being the same caliber by the committee?

There could be 20 teams better than us in the committees eyes, left out because there weren't at large spots left. A 12 seed doesn't mean you were close to an at large. It means there are 18 auto-qualifiers worse than you.

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In tonight's games I expect three of the four home teams to prevail. Just trying to pick one of the road teams to win is difficult. I guess I will go with chalk tonight except BG over Toledo.

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Just as a point of reference, last year's 12 seeds were South Dakota State (25-7), Chattanooga (29-5), Yale (22-6) and Little Rock (29-4).  Yale and Little Rock pulled off upsets.

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18 minutes ago, clarkwgriswold said:

Just as a point of reference, last year's 12 seeds were South Dakota State (25-7), Chattanooga (29-5), Yale (22-6) and Little Rock (29-4).  Yale and Little Rock pulled off upsets.

And a school like South Dakota State got that seed because schools like Valpo and Monmouth bombed out of their conference tournament and therefore were replaced by a weaker team sliding them up a few slots. I'm pretty sure even Akron was slotted higher than South Dakota State before they lost to Buffalo.That's the point I'm trying to get a crossed.

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2 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

And a school like South Dakota State got that seed because schools like Valpo and Monmouth bombed out of their conference tournament and therefore were replaced by a weaker team sliding them up a few slots. I'm pretty sure even Akron was slotted higher than South Dakota State before they lost to Buffalo.That's the point I'm trying to get a crossed.

 

Yep, so many moving parts it's impossible to predict.

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1 hour ago, zippy5 said:

I'm just trying to enjoy my Royale with cheese

It's the little differences.

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1 hour ago, kreed5120 said:

I'm pretty sure even Akron was slotted higher than South Dakota State before they lost to Buffalo.

 

Just curious...how do you know the selection committee had Akron slotted higher than SDSU?

 

Sure, maybe we had a shot at a #12 last year with a #34 RPI.  But ZERO chance this year with a #59 RPI.  You can hope for all of the conference tournament upsets you want, but nobody on that selection committee is going to give us that slot with our RPI and our weak league this year.  

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EMU over NIU
WMU over Miami
Toledo over BG
CMU over KSU


I know it's a bit off topic, but I hope Youngstown State wins the horizon league tournament. Would make our loss look a little more tolerable on the resume that our three non-conference losses were to NCAA tournament teams.

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29 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

Just curious...how do you know the selection committee had Akron slotted higher than SDSU?

 

Sure, maybe we had a shot at a #12 last year with a #34 RPI.  But ZERO chance this year with a #59 RPI.  You can hope for all of the conference tournament upsets you want, but nobody on that selection committee is going to give us that slot with our RPI and our weak league this year.  

I've already said us getting a 12 is highly unlikely twice now and I'll repeat it a 3rd time. I just don't understand how you don't get Akron's or any other MAC teams seed will be highly dependent on which teams win or don't win their conference tourneys. You don't have to be a top 50 team to get a 12 seed. You just have to be better than 18 teams that won their conference tourney. To be a 13 seed you have to be better than 14 other teams that won their conference tourney and so on.

Edited by kreed5120

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What a crappy EMU/NIU game. EMU pooped themselves by missing 4 straight FTs only to have NIU choke away both of their FTs to tie the game. Very proud of EMU's 3 fans for getting into it there at the end.

Edited by LZIp

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7 minutes ago, LZIp said:

What a crappy EMU/NIU game. EMU pooped themselves by missing 4 straight FTs only to have NIU choke away both of their FTs to tie the game. Very proud of EMU's 3 fans for getting into it there at the end.

I was cheering for OT and almost had it.

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3 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

You don't have to be a top 50 team to get a 12 seed.

 

If you're the champ of the MAC, in a weak MAC year, with 7 losses and a #59 RPI?   You'd better be about 20 spots better than that.  

 

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37 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

If you're the champ of the MAC, in a weak MAC year, with 7 losses and a #59 RPI?   You'd better be about 20 spots better than that.  

 

It 100% depends on how your resume stacks up against the other automatic qualifiers. Some years those teams are better than others depending on how many regular season champs get upset by a Cinderella in their conference tournament. I don't feel Akron would get the number of upsets needed for a 12 seed, especially after UNC-Wilm clinched, but that still doesn't change the fact that's the group of teams they will be measured against, not the bubble teams as you are right they are quite a distance away from the bubble.

Edited by kreed5120

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13 hours ago, Joe Akron said:

Home teams win.

 

Take the chalk.

And chalk it is. I'd be OK if the whole tournament goes that way. :D

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On 3/6/2017 at 8:37 AM, LZIp said:

Is Michigan State even going to make the tourney?

Michigan State is dancing for the 20th consecutive season under coach Tom Izzo. They won't face UA as I predicted, instead they get the U. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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