I feel it's impossible to project that. The only loss you can really guarantee for them from our schedule is Purdue. Murray State, Yale, and Troy were all winnable games for us. In fact, we were favored in all 3 contests. It's very conceivable they could have beaten those teams listed.
Also, this is the first season in I don't know how long that we didn't have a head stretching loss. Normally we lose to a NIU, Milwaukee, or Princeton who we had no business losing to. It's extremely challenging to win 28 games against D1 opponents in the regular season.
All metrics have flaws. That's probably why they keep continuing to build new ones. There is no perfect way when you have ~350 teams competing for 68 spots, but each team only plays 31 regular season games.