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OU at Akron


MDZip

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Might as well get some actual game discussion going. Not that it is any secret, but like I said in another thread a couple of weeks ago, this is going to be a battle of differing strengths ... Akron's size vs. Ohio's guard play. An easy conclusion to draw is that whatever team does better at matching the other's strength is going to win ... IE, if Keely, Baltic, Smith play better than Abreu, Walsh, Chauncey, the Bobcats will be tough to beat. Of course, that is a very simple conclusion to draw.

Still, I think that Akron's backcourt has enough talent to hang with OU, they just can't get sloppy with the ball and allow the Bobcats to create turnovers and run-out situations. If they avoid the careless turnovers, they can match OU's backcourt in half-court situations.

In the post is where the Zips are going to have a huge advantage. As much as I like Baltic's perimeter game (for a big), he isn't the type that is going to want to bang with somebody like Tree. Same with Keely, while he won't back down against Zeke or Forsythe on the offensive end (and he has great touch around the rim), Zeke and Forsythe's length advantage (no way is Keely 6-9), should disrupt him. Plus, neither Baltic nor Keely are solid rebounders, another big advantage for Akron. In fact, this is a game that Akron should dominate the glass. OU's best rebounder may be Jon Smith, and he's going to be giving up a couple inches to all four of the Zips' "bigs" and even Kretzer, when he is on the floor.

Offensively, it will be imperative to establish the low-post early on and see how OU tries to defend it. Regardless of what OU does, Akron has enough all-around talent to exploit OU's defense.

Defensively, the biggest thing is not to get caught up in the head games OU likes to play, meaning Alex is going to have to realize that D.J. Cooper is going to make things happen, and not get caught up in Cooper's trash talk. As long as Alex realizes that OU needs Cooper to be the guy for the Bobcats have a chance, and can stay composed and realize that the Zips won't need him to carry the team (though he needs to pull the trigger when he has open opportunities, since he is the best big-situation shooter on the roster), PG is still a battle Akron can win, even if statistics make it appear as a loss.

Same with Zeke. While, OU's bigs shouldn't cause him to be taken out of his game, for whatever reason, they have been able to do that in the past. However, Zeke has done a much better job against everybody of picking his spots and staying out of foul trouble this year. That will have to continue. He can't let Keely, Smith or whoever take him out of his game by trying to whatever they can to make that happen. OU's front court is undersized, they have to, and will, resort to anything to try to gain an advantage.

If Alex and Zeke play with composure, while the Bobcats still have some advantages on the perimeter, not enough to make up for what they lack inside. I believe OU's recent domination of Akron hasn't been due to having better players, just that they have done a great job winning the mental side of the game. This year, Akron, IMO, has the physical advantage, they just need to also show they can match OU's mental toughness. Do that, and the Zips win. Allow OU to control the mental side, and it's another loss (and then you have to limp down to Athens for another round of it).

For all the 16-0 MAC record and being the first mid-major to win a national title talk (granted I'm pointing out Tree here, who I believe is the most mentally tough player on the team, but believe everybody on this roster has those same thoughts), this will be the first test at full strength, playing in a rhythm (no two week or one-week off between games ... ala Creighton and Detroit) for this team to show it has what it takes to back up that line of thought. We'll just have to see what happens.

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Solid review, wadzip! :bow:

To take the point about taking care of the ball further, there is one Zip player who has done a Vinny Testeverde impression with 2 or 3 passes each of the last few games. THAT can't happen tomorrow.

Honestly, I don't have a good feel for what I expect for a result. I think a lot of people are like that and it's why the matchup is so intriguing. No outcome would really surprise me. I do think if we minimize (no more than 10) turnovers, we'll win.

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I understand Dambrodt's love for man-to-man defense but I think it has been part of our problem when playing OU. There big men don't want to play down low so our big man follow them outside which leaves the lane open. I've love to see us try something different tomorrow against OU. I may be the only one but I hate to see Z out guarding Cooper. It drove me nuts in the finals last year.

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I may be the only one but I hate to see Z out guarding Cooper.
I'm guessing your in the majority. I hope to see some zone tomorrow too.

I'm dying to see how the staff plans to attack and defend. Hopefully the coaching is as good as it was against BG and KSPU.

If that happens and AA plays two good halves, I like our chances. Okay, I guess I switched gears...

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Great analysis Wad...I especially liked your mention of the mental aspect. Abreu and Marshall have no doubt been affected mentally in this rivalry. I think you have to give the advantage to the home team in both matchups, and we'll see what happens in Cleveland. It is a shame both teams struggled a bit on the road in OOC or we'd have 2 teams already in great position for an at-large.

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@TPSjugglerdude, one of the many areas where Zeke has improved this season is learning how to cope with a swarm of players collapsing on him when he gets the ball inside. Zeke has learned to avoid holding on to the ball or trying to dribble under these conditions, where it used to get frequently poked away, and has been quicker to either shoot or pass back out to an open man. The result is that his turnover rate has improved 25% from 1.6 per game last season to a current 1.2 per game. By comparison, highly rated centers Jeff Withey of Kansas and Cody Zeller of Indiana are averaging 1.7 and 1.8 turnovers per game respectively.

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@TPSjugglerdude, one of the many areas where Zeke has improved this season is learning how to cope with a swarm of players collapsing on him when he gets the ball inside. Zeke has learned to avoid holding on to the ball or trying to dribble under these conditions, where it used to get frequently poked away, and has been quicker to either shoot or pass back out to an open man. The result is that his turnover rate has improved 25% from 1.6 per game last season to a current 1.2 per game. By comparison, highly rated centers Jeff Withey of Kansas and Cody Zeller of Indiana are averaging 1.7 and 1.8 turnovers per game respectively.

Dave is spot-on with that. Zeke is night and day better at reading and reacting to how he is defended. That's also an aspect that Tree has also be good at. However, I could see Pat struggling against OU's swarming defense. He tends to put the ball on the floor too quickly and start making post moves. He'll have to show some patience against OU. All three are going to have to pick their spots on when to put the ball down in the low-block vs. kicking out to the perimeter.

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Great analysis Wad...I especially liked your mention of the mental aspect. Abreu and Marshall have no doubt been affected mentally in this rivalry. I think you have to give the advantage to the home team in both matchups, and we'll see what happens in Cleveland. It is a shame both teams struggled a bit on the road in OOC or we'd have 2 teams already in great position for an at-large.

Agreed.

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