Game 29- Buffalo

[clarkwgriswold]

The Zips head to the great white north on Saturday to face the Canadians.  SVSM alum Javon Graves continues to lead those hosers, averaging 17 a game, 5th in the MAC.  Mballa is one of the better rebounders in the MAC, averaging 9.2 rpg (2nd in the MAC).   Jeff Boals quickly improving Kittens beat them soundly in Athens tonight, ending a four game win streak for the Buffalo.

[NWAkron]

I think this thread will be very quiet the rest of the week.

[MDZip]

Going to be a tough one, I don't love the Zips chances with this being in Buffalo and the Bulls being an excellent rebounding team, but I am amazed that the ESPN matchup predictor still favors the Zips. 

[clarkwgriswold]

They'll sure have to rebound better than last time when they were outrebounded 52-31.  They made Josh Mballa look like Artis Gilmore in that game (I love references the youngsters have to Google). 

[kreed5120]

I'd like to see more Sayles in this game. Mballa was just purely more physical than Reece and more athletic than Riak. Sayles is a much better balance between the two. Another thing is our guards need to do a better job of keeping their man in front of them. A large part of that rebounding discrepancy was from our guards getting beat then Riak or Reece having to rotate instead of being able to box out for a rebound.

[AkronAlumnus]

I don't understand why Akron refuses to drive the basketball. LCJ is a phenomenal finisher around the rim, Cheese is a dominant slasher, and Williams is a 6'10 forward with a much better mid/close range than 3 point game. Yet, the zips continue to fire up a 3 ball (5 for 35) against BGSU and--going 1 of 9 to start the game--against Miami. It's frustrating because I went to the BGSU game when it was here and they pounded the hell out of the ball established pressure down low and had the falcons at their mercy. They completely abandoned that strategy this time around and the result was clear. 

 

If you look at our losses we always have something to point too. Not being able to finish against Kent, bad rebounding against Buffalo, and not shooting the 3 ball well against BGSU. Then the Toledo loss which, (in my opinion), we couldn't have played better. I think if the zips ran a more balanced offense and didn't depend on the 3 ball; stressed defensive rebounding and played their best bigs; we would only have lost to Toledo in conference play. I think we are still the best and most complete team when we play the game our way.

[1981 grad]

7 hours ago, AkronAlumnus said:

I don't understand why Akron refuses to drive the basketball. LCJ is a phenomenal finisher around the rim, Cheese is a dominant slasher, and Williams is a 6'10 forward with a much better mid/close range than 3 point game. Yet, the zips continue to fire up a 3 ball (5 for 35) against BGSU and--going 1 of 9 to start the game--against Miami. It's frustrating because I went to the BGSU game when it was here and they pounded the hell out of the ball established pressure down low and had the falcons at their mercy. They completely abandoned that strategy this time around and the result was clear. 

 

If you look at our losses we always have something to point too. Not being able to finish against Kent, bad rebounding against Buffalo, and not shooting the 3 ball well against BGSU. Then the Toledo loss which, (in my opinion), we couldn't have played better. I think if the zips ran a more balanced offense and didn't depend on the 3 ball; stressed defensive rebounding and played their best bigs; we would only have lost to Toledo in conference play. I think we are still the best and most complete team when we play the game our way.

A lot of their offense is to slash to the basket and when the defense collapses to the paint to pass the ball out to the 3 line for an open three.  It works when you are shooting the 3 ball.  Remember, at one point in the season this team was top 10 nationally on 3 point shooting percentage.  We struggle when we cannot make a 3 ball.  

[NWAkron]

31 minutes ago, 1981 grad said:

A lot of their offense is to slash to the basket and when the defense collapses to the paint to pass the ball out to the 3 line for an open three.  It works when you are shooting the 3 ball.  Remember, at one point in the season this team was top 10 nationally on 3 point shooting percentage.  We struggle when we cannot make a 3 ball.  

If there are a lot of 3s clanking off the rim in Buffalo, the Zips will have trouble because of Buffalo's superior rebounding.  The Coach can only design plays to help the guys get open looks, but he can't make them fall.  Just have to hope the Zips can snap out of it.   There's really no way to make sense of it.  0-1 and move on.

Edited February 27, 2020 by NWAkron

[zipfan84]

22 hours ago, AkronAlumnus said:

I don't understand why Akron refuses to drive the basketball. LCJ is a phenomenal finisher around the rim, Cheese is a dominant slasher, and Williams is a 6'10 forward with a much better mid/close range than 3 point game. Yet, the zips continue to fire up a 3 ball (5 for 35) against BGSU and--going 1 of 9 to start the game--against Miami. It's frustrating because I went to the BGSU game when it was here and they pounded the hell out of the ball established pressure down low and had the falcons at their mercy. They completely abandoned that strategy this time around and the result was clear. 

 

If you look at our losses we always have something to point too. Not being able to finish against Kent, bad rebounding against Buffalo, and not shooting the 3 ball well against BGSU. Then the Toledo loss which, (in my opinion), we couldn't have played better. I think if the zips ran a more balanced offense and didn't depend on the 3 ball; stressed defensive rebounding and played their best bigs; we would only have lost to Toledo in conference play. I think we are still the best and most complete team when we play the game our way.

Couldn't agree more. The ridiculous quantity of 3 point attempts coupled with the decision making on the #5 position has frustrated me from day 1 of the Groce era. But especially this season. This team is so much better when playing bigger and aggressively attacking the rim. We have the ability. Why so infrequent?

[NWAkron]

1 hour ago, zipfan84 said:

Couldn't agree more. The ridiculous quantity of 3 point attempts coupled with the decision making on the #5 position has frustrated me from day 1 of the Groce era. But especially this season. This team is so much better when playing bigger and aggressively attacking the rim. We have the ability. Why so infrequent?

Good season. Much improved record.  But some of the demons we saw the last few years are slowly coming back to the surface

[clarkwgriswold]

 

For the sake of the conversation, I went back and looked at the Zips and X's three point shooting in MAC play this year.  Some interesting numbers.

EMU-  11/25 (55%)/ X- 4/4 (100%)

WMU- 11/29(38%)/ X- 3/4 (75%)

BSU-     7/19 (37%)/ X- 5/8 (62.5%)

NIU-    11/28 (39%)/ X- 4/10 (62.5%)

TOL-   13/26 (50%)/ X- 2/4 (50%)

MIA-   14/24 (58%)/ X- 5/11 (45%)

OU-     13/23 (56%)/ X- 2/5 (40%)

BUF-    8/20 (27%)/  X- 1/7 (14%)

KSU-    7/21 (33%)/  X- 2/6 (33%)

EMU-   6/29 (21%)/  X- 2/10 (20%)

BG-     5/17 (29%)/   X- 0/3 (0%)

CMU-  10/27(37%)/  X- 1/7 (14%)

WMU- 8/24 (33%)/  X- 0/6 (0%)

MIA-   9/28 (32%)/  X- 1/7- (14%)

BG-     3/35 (14%)/  X- 0/8  (0%)

 

Some interesting numbers and conclusions.  The wheels of the team's 3 points shooting, as well as X's to a greater degree, came off after the OU Game.  Up to then, they were shooting a whopping 49% on 3 pointers in MAC play while X was shooting at a 54% clip.  Since then, they've shot 3 pointers at a 30% rate while X has fallen off to a woeful 13%.   

 

This team is not a 49% three point shooting team (no team in the country is).  They are better than the 30% shooting team we've seen starting with Buffalo.  X is not a 54% level 3 point shooter.  Nor is he a 13% shooter.  His record at Dayton tells us he's a .357 three point shooter. 

 

I think we were all a little fooled by those first 7 MAC games when they were on fire and it unreasonably increased our expectations.  I think as a team they'll shoot at 36-38% from 3 and I pray X gets back to the 35-36% shooting his history tells us he can be.

[MDZip]

So if you add up all of the numbers he is 32 for 100 on threes  so just a little under his career rate so he has reverted to the mean (and I suspect if you go back to the beginning of the year when he was also shooting well I'll bet his average would go up a little probably putting him right around his career rate). I guess we shouldn't be that surprised. But now that he's there I hope he continues to shoot at least his average rate.

[NWAkron]

39 minutes ago, clarkwgriswold said:

 

For the sake of the conversation, I went back and looked at the Zips and X's three point shooting in MAC play this year.  Some interesting numbers.

EMU-  11/25 (55%)/ X- 4/4 (100%)

WMU- 11/29(38%)/ X- 3/4 (75%)

BSU-     7/19 (37%)/ X- 5/8 (62.5%)

NIU-    11/28 (39%)/ X- 4/10 (62.5%)

TOL-   13/26 (50%)/ X- 2/4 (50%)

MIA-   14/24 (58%)/ X- 5/11 (45%)

OU-     13/23 (56%)/ X- 2/5 (40%)

BUF-    8/20 (27%)/  X- 1/7 (14%)

KSU-    7/21 (33%)/  X- 2/6 (33%)

EMU-   6/29 (21%)/  X- 2/10 (20%)

BG-     5/17 (29%)/   X- 0/3 (0%)

CMU-  10/27(37%)/  X- 1/7 (14%)

WMU- 8/24 (33%)/  X- 0/6 (0%)

MIA-   9/28 (32%)/  X- 1/7- (14%)

BG-     3/35 (14%)/  X- 0/8  (0%)

 

Some interesting numbers and conclusions.  The wheels of the team's 3 points shooting, as well as X's to a greater degree, came off after the OU Game.  Up to then, they were shooting a whopping 49% on 3 pointers in MAC play while X was shooting at a 54% clip.  Since then, they've shot 3 pointers at a 30% rate while X has fallen off to a woeful 13%.   

 

This team is not a 49% three point shooting team (no team in the country is).  They are better than the 30% shooting team we've seen starting with Buffalo.  X is not a 54% level 3 point shooter.  Nor is he a 13% shooter.  His record at Dayton tells us he's a .357 three point shooter. 

 

I think we were all a little fooled by those first 7 MAC games when they were on fire and it unreasonably increased our expectations.  I think as a team they'll shoot at 36-38% from 3 and I pray X gets back to the 35-36% shooting his history tells us he can be.

This is great info.  Occasionally, it's just something simple.  That stat explains it all.

[clarkwgriswold]

Tyler suspended a game for bumping ref, as I expected-

 

https://www.beaconjournal.com/sports/20200227/zips-second-leading-scorer-suspended-for-bumping-official

 

Looks like UA may have made a preemptive strike, suspending him before the MAC did and the MAC went along with their action.

Edited February 27, 2020 by clarkwgriswold

[NWAkron]

17 minutes ago, clarkwgriswold said:

Tyler suspended a game for bumping ref, as I expected-

 

https://www.beaconjournal.com/sports/20200227/zips-second-leading-scorer-suspended-for-bumping-official

 

Looks like UA may have made a preemptive strike, suspending him before the MAC did and the MAC went along with their action.

What a cluster for the program at the biggest game of the season.  LCJ is always a class act.  Banks has been pushing the envelope and now this.  Expecting a blow out Saturday.

Or as Clark would say, 'This is why we can't have nice things."

Edited February 27, 2020 by NWAkron

[clarkwgriswold]

I assume this will push Tribble into the starting lineup, though I guess it could be Ali as he started the season with Cheese as the 6th man.  Neither is ready for a start at Buffalo.

[kreed5120]

I don't think it's a regression to the mean for Xeyrius. It may have started out that way, but I feel it has grown into being a mental problem. One of the three pointers he shot last game he was open and double pumped the shot. This tells me he was doubting taking the shot in the first place. Other attempts he missed pretty badly. I'd love to see him start off against Buffalo attacking the basket. Perhaps even get to the free throw line. Seeing the ball go through the net a few times could do wonders for his confidence. Maybe then he'll start shooting again with confidence.

[clarkwgriswold]

3 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

I don't think it's a regression to the mean for Xeyrius. It may have started out that way, but I feel it has grown into being a mental problem. One of the three pointers he shot last game he was open and double pumped the shot. This tells me he was doubting taking the shot in the first place. Other attempts he missed pretty badly. I'd love to see him start off against Buffalo attacking the basket. Perhaps even get to the free throw line. Seeing the ball go through the net a few times could do wonders for his confidence. Maybe then he'll start shooting again with confidence.

 

Yep, clearly in his head now.  I'd not only like to see him drive and post up, especially against the smaller defenders he often faces, but I'd like him to skip class Friday and shoot and shoot and shoot...

[kreed5120]

In regards to the Cheese suspension I suppose we just have to make the best of the situation. We've talked all season how we needed at least one of Tribble, Dawson, or Ali to step up. With Cheese out they will have an opportunity.

[akronzips71]

We are always snakebit.

[NWAkron]

16 minutes ago, akronzips71 said:

We are always snakebit.

minor hiccup on the way to Saturday night in Cleveland?

[kreed5120]

The punishment was fair and just. We did it to ourselves.

[zippy5]

58 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

I don't think it's a regression to the mean for Xeyrius. 

Stats don't care about the reason. He literally regressed to the mean. Not to say you're wrong, he's definitely in his own head. But no matter what the reason is, a regression was coming. We just need to hope he can turn it around in the next two weeks. 

[clarkwgriswold]

41 minutes ago, akronzips71 said:

We are always snakebit.

 

On this one, Tyler put the Zips' hand in the mouth of the snake.  Pretty simple rule- don't touch a ref.

[zippyfan34]

4 hours ago, clarkwgriswold said:

Tyler suspended a game for bumping ref, as I expected-

 

https://www.beaconjournal.com/sports/20200227/zips-second-leading-scorer-suspended-for-bumping-official

 

Looks like UA may have made a preemptive strike, suspending him before the MAC did and the MAC went along with their action.

I think Tyler made a mistake and this isn’t reflective of his true character.  I got to talk to him at the ice cream social before the season and came away very impressed with how articulate he was and seemed very genuine in his conversations.