2024-25 Post Mortem and Looking Ahead to 2025-26

[akzipper]

6 hours ago, 1981 grad said:

Does anyone remember a time when the basketball board went nearly silent in March and April because the season had just ended and there really was not much discussion about Akron Basketball?  Instead, people were posting about spring football and how the Zips were going to look next year.

 

Not going to lie, after the past few days I've honestly considered avoiding this board for the foreseeable future. I feel like whenever I open up this page it's more bad news. I wanted to be excited about the upcoming season. 

[kreed5120]

8 minutes ago, akzipper said:

 

Not going to lie, after the past few days I've honestly considered avoiding this board for the foreseeable future. I feel like whenever I open up this page it's more bad news. I wanted to be excited about the upcoming season. 

I've thought about avoiding the forum until April 23rd since the portal closes on the 22nd. At least then I'd know what kind of aftermath we're dealing with.

[NWAkron]

2 hours ago, akzipper said:

 

Not going to lie, after the past few days I've honestly considered avoiding this board for the foreseeable future. I feel like whenever I open up this page it's more bad news. I wanted to be excited about the upcoming season. 

It's really sad that you can't be excited about the two time defending MAC tournament champions.  There will be a good, quality team on the court next year.  It may not have all the bells and whistles that some on here want, but Akron cannot compete with schools that have endowments in the billions.  yes, the endowment $ doesn't go to NIL, but it's a sign of how much $ flows into those schools like Utah and BYU.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 11:56 PM by NWAkron

[LZIp]

26 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

It's really sad that you can't be excited about the two time defending MAC tournament champions.  There will be a good, quality team on the court next year.  It may not have all the bells and whistles that some on here want, but Akron cannot compete with schools that have endowments in the billions.  yes, the endowment $ doesn't go to NIL, but it's a sign of how much $ flows into those schools like Utah and BYU.

 

 

As of right now, we return zero starters next year. Johnson and Johnson hurt.

[kreed5120]

27 minutes ago, LZIp said:

As of right now, we return zero starters next year. Johnson and Johnson hurt.

 

Tavari still isn't in the portal officially as I can tell. If it happens, I would have to think Miami enters the season as the favorites. That's obviously not to say that we can't still win the MAC, but it's going to be a much more uphill battle with these departures. 

 

We looked positioned to be one of the more hyped mid-major entering the season. Similar to a Drake or McNeese. Now at best even if we find a way to win the MAC, the best we could realistically hope for is being a +15+ underdog 13 seed.

[RoyalBlu]

4 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

 

Tavari still isn't in the portal officially as I can tell. If it happens, I would have to think Miami enters the season as the favorites. That's obviously not to say that we can't still win the MAC, but it's going to be a much more uphill battle with these departures. 

 

We looked positioned to be one of the more hyped mid-major entering the season. Similar to a Drake or McNeese. Now at best even if we find a way to win the MAC, the best we could realistically hope for is being a +15+ underdog 13 seed.

Let's start with a baseline: With Groce as head coach Akron is a Top 4 team in the MAC. Period. The talent on hand and how the team progresses will determine the ultimate finish. Using the last two seasons as a template, the non-conference performance seemed to have as many questions as answers. The MAC regular season showed Akron as a Top 4 team in the MAC. The MAC Tournament showed Akron was a title game favorite/winner.

 

As long as Akron lands in the same spot come March - playing for a tournament title - the process will take care of itself. Simply stated, Groce and Co. are likely in the office saying 'I'd rather be us than them.'

 

 

[kreed5120]

45 minutes ago, RoyalBlu said:

Let's start with a baseline: With Groce as head coach Akron is a Top 4 team in the MAC. Period. The talent on hand and how the team progresses will determine the ultimate finish. Using the last two seasons as a template, the non-conference performance seemed to have as many questions as answers. The MAC regular season showed Akron as a Top 4 team in the MAC. The MAC Tournament showed Akron was a title game favorite/winner.

 

As long as Akron lands in the same spot come March - playing for a tournament title - the process will take care of itself. Simply stated, Groce and Co. are likely in the office saying 'I'd rather be us than them.'

 

Let's start off by establishing I simply stating our ceiling for next season has likely been lowered. I never stated that we couldn't win the MAC. In fact, I said the opposite.

 

What I said is our odds of winning the MAC are less than what they would have been 1 week ago and the seed we'd get if we do win will likely be lower than had we been able to run it back. Any objective person without Zippy tinted glasses would agree.

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 hour ago, kreed5120 said:

Now at best even if we find a way to win the MAC, the best we could realistically hope for is being a +15+ underdog 13 seed.

 

What in the Chicken Little Sky is Falling crap is this? My goodness this couldn't be further from the truth. Is that a realistic outcome? Sure. Is it the only and best realistic outcome? Hell no; not even close. The 3 players that have been confirmed to be lost are a guy that wasn't a team fit/didn't play all year, and undersized/poor finishing/foul-happy PF, and a guard that made quite a few mistakes in many games/scored 4 pts vs Yale/shot 11% vs Arizona/not a greater shooter in general/great defensive player otherwise. 

 

We have, at the moment until TJ is official, 2 open roster spots. The previously open 3rd spot has already been filled with an even bigger version of Nate Johnson with maybe a slightly worse offensive game (TBD). With the 2 open spots, we have an opportunity to add more scoring AND get bigger in the front court. Not to mention we will have room for the talent that's already on the roster to have a higher volume and flourish more. 

 

We performed as poorly as realistically possible in the OOC last year and that wasn't in spite of Nate/Okonkwo/Harris. Our floor next season is that. Our ceiling is higher. 

 

Aaron Rodgers said it best. R-E-L-A-X. 

Edited yesterday at 02:08 AM by Let'sGoZips94

[kreed5120]

1 minute ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

What in the Chicken Little Sky is Falling crap is this? My goodness this couldn't be further from the truth. Is that a realistic outcome? Sure. Is it the only and best realistic outcome? Hell no; not even close. The 3 players that have been confirmed to be lost are a guy that wasn't a team fit/didn't play all year, and undersized/poor finishing/foul-happy PF, and a guard that made quite a few mistakes in many games/scored 4 pts vs Yale/shot 11% vs Arizona/not a greater shooter in general/great defensive player otherwise. 

 

We have, at the moment until TJ is official, 2 open roster spots. The previous 3rd spot has already been filled with an even bigger version of Nate Johnson with maybe a slightly worse offensive game (TBD). With the 2 open spots, we have an opportunity to add more scoring AND get bigger in the front court. 

 

Aaron Rodgers said it best. R-E-L-A-X. 

 

Go back and read my post in its entirety. The first sentence said TJ isn't officially gone yet. The 2nd sentence said it pertained to only if he does leave. If he returns, I think the Zips are still well positioned.

 

Nate is a loss even if you want to downplay it. That said, if Tavari returns we can replace much of his production in the aggregate with our depth at guard. A luxury other MAC teams wouldn't have. Okonkwo seems to collect a lot of strays here. He was fine in his role, but he wasn't going to be the guy to make or break the team next year. He can be replaced in the portal, but at the same time I don't see us majorly upgrading the position. Reece Potter (who averaged fewer points, rebounds, and blocks than Okonkwo while playing similar minutes) is reportedly requesting $300k in the portal. Whoever we bring in will likely be unproven and looking for an opportunity.

[Zippy87]

1 hour ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

What in the Chicken Little Sky is Falling crap is this? My goodness this couldn't be further from the truth. Is that a realistic outcome? Sure. Is it the only and best realistic outcome? Hell no; not even close. The 3 players that have been confirmed to be lost are a guy that wasn't a team fit/didn't play all year, and undersized/poor finishing/foul-happy PF, and a guard that made quite a few mistakes in many games/scored 4 pts vs Yale/shot 11% vs Arizona/not a greater shooter in general/great defensive player otherwise. 

 

We have, at the moment until TJ is official, 2 open roster spots. The previously open 3rd spot has already been filled with an even bigger version of Nate Johnson with maybe a slightly worse offensive game (TBD). With the 2 open spots, we have an opportunity to add more scoring AND get bigger in the front court. Not to mention we will have room for the talent that's already on the roster to have a higher volume and flourish more. 

 

We performed as poorly as realistically possible in the OOC last year and that wasn't in spite of Nate/Okonkwo/Harris. Our floor next season is that. Our ceiling is higher. 

 

Aaron Rodgers said it best. R-E-L-A-X. 

 

I am with you in the overall thought process here, but I'd be stunned if Evan is only slightly worse offensively than Nate. I'm expecting a sizeable gap. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

39 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

 

Go back and read my post in its entirety. The first sentence said TJ isn't officially gone yet. The 2nd sentence said it pertained to only if he does leave. If he returns, I think the Zips are still well positioned.

 

Nate is a loss even if you want to downplay it. That said, if Tavari returns we can replace much of his production in the aggregate with our depth at guard. A luxury other MAC teams wouldn't have. Okonkwo seems to collect a lot of strays here. He was fine in his role, but he wasn't going to be the guy to make or break the team next year. He can be replaced in the portal, but at the same time I don't see us majorly upgrading the position. Reece Potter (who averaged fewer points, rebounds, and blocks than Okonkwo while playing similar minutes) is reportedly requesting $300k in the portal. Whoever we bring in will likely be unproven and looking for an opportunity.

 

Your post in its entirety doesn't explain away the ceiling you put on the team regardless of TJ's official decision. 

 

Nate is a loss until he's replaced and we've already replaced half his production (Evan Mahaffey's defense). He had a few games that he took over, but was largely inefficient in doing so. His game requires the ball to be in his hands, which often killed movement on offense. There's a world where the offense operates better without him and even without TJ. We had a competitive but weaker OOC that saw no significant wins for Akron. Nate had 4 pts vs Yale, 11 vs Arkansas State (26.7% from the field), 8 vs Saint Mary's (33% from the field), and 17 vs Princeton (although he only shot 37.5% from the field). Nate won MAC POTY because he dominated a weak MAC, and deservedly so. However, I'm not sure Nate is the type of player that elevates the program to the next level. You said our ceiling next year is likely the same as this year - MAC Champions with a +15 pt spread as a 13 seed in the NCAAT. I would make the argument that was the ceiling with Nate as our "best player" given the volume he occupied each game. Depending on how he's replaced, our ceiling could be higher. 

 

TJ is a similar player, although a more efficient shooter. His shooting would be a bigger loss, but he is a ball-dominant PG that might not be the best fit for this offense; Tavari iso-ball was aggravating most of the time and killed the flow of the offense. We'd also have the opportunity to get bigger at guard (or elsewhere since we're still very loaded at guard). 

 

Okonkwo was absolutely fine in his role, but he's replaceable. I don't know who the replacement(s) will be for him, but they're out there. Potter can ask for all the money he wants - he's still a free agent which may say something about his asking price. Akron is an attractive destination for a lot of players and we have way more money now than before to upgrade the front court. 

Edited yesterday at 03:29 AM by Let'sGoZips94

[Let'sGoZips94]

16 minutes ago, Zippy87 said:

 

I am with you in the overall thought process here, but I'd be stunned if Evan is only slightly worse offensively than Nate. I'm expecting a sizeable gap. 

 

Evan's offensive "woes" came from him not shooting the ball very often. He had a 67.1% FG% last season compared to Nate's 43.9%. I don't know how much of an actual shooter Evan is, but they both score most of their baskets inside the 3P line. I suspect Groce & his staff will be able to open up opportunities that will unlock Evan's offensive abilities. Furthermore, there is an even deeper scenario where the aggregate with Evan instead of Nate is more productive based on the inefficiencies in Nate's volume (43.9% from the field and 30.1% from 3).

 

By the way, none of my posts in any way, shape, or form are meant to crap on any of the players departing. Last season was a helluva lot of fun, and I am very appreciate of those players for representing Akron how they did. As Kreed eluded to, us fans tend to have Blue & Gold colored glasses which can skew our view of reality in all sorts of ways. There are stats & basketball fundamentals that can be used to maintain a positive outlook in an otherwise difficult & annoying time. I personally would rather remain positive. Go Zips. 

Edited yesterday at 03:28 AM by Let'sGoZips94

[Zippy87]

31 minutes ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Evan's offensive "woes" came from him not shooting the ball very often. He had a 67.1% FG% last season compared to Nate's 43.9%. I don't know how much of an actual shooter Evan is, but they both score most of their baskets inside the 3P line. I suspect Groce & his staff will be able to open up opportunities that will unlock Evan's offensive abilities. Furthermore, there is an even deeper scenario where the aggregate with Evan instead of Nate is more productive based on the inefficiencies in Nate's volume (43.9% from the field and 30.1% from 3).

 

Evan was a poor offensive player last year with a low usage rate. He isn't a plus shooter and never has been. Now, will that improve? Of course, especially against lesser competition in the MAC. But I think it's heavily discounting Nate's offensive game to suggest Evan will come in and be close to that (I don't even expect Evan to play a similar role). 

Edited yesterday at 03:55 AM by Zippy87

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 hour ago, Zippy87 said:

 

Evan was a poor offensive player last year with a low usage rate. He isn't a plus shooter and never has been. Now, will that improve? Of course, especially against lesser competition in the MAC. But I think it's heavily discounting Nate's offensive game to suggest Evan will come in and be close to that (I don't even expect Evan to play a similar role). 

 

You're going to have a hard time convincing me that a 67.1% FG% with 18 mpg is a poor offensive player. Low volume? Sure, but that's insane efficiency. Freeman is exhibit A of what efficiency can lead to on offense. Is Evan capable of the offensive ceiling that Nate has? Probably not, and maybe offensive game wasn't the right verbiage for the comparison, but I don't think there's a huge drop off production wise on offense going from Nate to Evan. 

 

I don't expect Evan to play a similar role either and that's a good thing. I'd rather our PGs facilitate the offense rather than the isolation ball we saw too much of this season. 

Edited yesterday at 04:56 AM by Let'sGoZips94

[kreed5120]

52 minutes ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Your post in its entirety doesn't explain away the ceiling you put on the team regardless of TJ's official decision. 

 

Nate is a loss until he's replaced and we've already replaced half his production (Evan Mahaffey's defense). He had a few games that he took over, but was largely inefficient in doing so. His game requires the ball to be in his hands, which often killed movement on offense. There's a world where the offense operates better without him and even without TJ. We had a competitive but weaker OOC that saw no significant wins for Akron. Nate had 4 pts vs Yale, 11 vs Arkansas State (26.7% from the field), 8 vs Saint Mary's (33% from the field), and 17 vs Princeton (although he only shot 37.5% from the field). Nate won MAC POTY because he dominated a weak MAC, and deservedly so. However, I'm not sure Nate is the type of player that elevates the program to the next level. You said our ceiling next year is likely the same as this year - MAC Champions with a +15 pt spread as a 13 seed in the NCAAT. I would make the argument that was the ceiling with Nate as our "best player" given the volume he occupied each game. Depending on how he's replaced, our ceiling could be higher. 

 

TJ is a similar player, although a more efficient shooter. His shooting would be a bigger loss, but he is a ball-dominant PG that might not be the best fit for this offense; Tavari iso-ball was aggravating most of the time and killed the flow of the offense. We'd also have the opportunity to get bigger at guard (or elsewhere since we're still very loaded at guard). 

 

Okonkwo was absolutely fine in his role, but he's replaceable. I don't know who the replacement(s) will be for him, but they're out there. Potter can ask for all the money he wants - he's still a free agent which may say something about his asking price. Akron is an attractive destination for a lot of players and we have way more money now than before to upgrade the front court. 

 

Evan is already slotted in to replace Gray. He won't even be defending the same player that Johnson would otherwise be defending. If both Johnson's are gone that would mean we'd be down 2 first team All MAC guards and our entire starting 5 from last year. That would be explanation enough why our perceived ceiling would be lower. Besides, my prior higher perceived ceiling accounted for Mahaffey on the team. It's not like he was signed after.

 

Nate literally made the basket that sent us to the tournament and Tavari made the defensive stop that led to the run out. Without them we wouldn't have even made it to the tournment. Yet you're trying to argue we'd be better off with them not here? If that's what you honestly believe we can just agree to disagree. Now if Tavari returns we can manage without Nate, but both gone would be a kick to the groin.

 

We'll see where we go on bigs. I frankly don't think it's worth the money given the premium paid to the position. Guys like Dynes from YSU have received massive bag despite putting up pretty pedestrian numbers in not so great conferences. Dollars go much further spending on forwards and guards as those positions are more plentiful. Not to mention whoever we sign will likely only be playing ~20 minutes a game as they would be splitting time with Lyles.

[kreed5120]

1 hour ago, Zippy87 said:

 

Evan was a poor offensive player last year with a low usage rate. He isn't a plus shooter and never has been. Now, will that improve? Of course, especially against lesser competition in the MAC. But I think it's heavily discounting Nate's offensive game to suggest Evan will come in and be close to that (I don't even expect Evan to play a similar role). 

Offensively I'd expect him to more closely replace being a more athletic Okonkwo than Nate. He will score by getting put backs on the offensive glass and collecting dump off passes for easy dunks. The added dimension is he'll be able to better run the floor and score in the open court. If he developed a jump shot he'd be a stud.

 

He likely isn't going to be the one creating offense for himself and others in the half court. That's just not his game, which is fine. Groce teams have generally performed best when the offense runs through a ball dominant pg (Cooper, LCJ, Castaneda, Johnson & Johnson).

[Illini Zip]

Happy Easter everyone!!

 

 

[Let'sGoZips94]

8 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

 

Evan is already slotted in to replace Gray. He won't even be defending the same player that Johnson would otherwise be defending. If both Johnson's are gone that would mean we'd be down 2 first team All MAC guards and our entire starting 5 from last year. That would be explanation enough why our perceived ceiling would be lower. Besides, my prior higher perceived ceiling accounted for Mahaffey on the team. It's not like he was signed after.

 

Nate literally made the basket that sent us to the tournament and Tavari made the defensive stop that led to the run out. Without them we wouldn't have even made it to the tournment. Yet you're trying to argue we'd be better off with them not here? If that's what you honestly believe we can just agree to disagree. Now if Tavari returns we can manage without Nate, but both gone would be a kick to the groin.

 

We'll see where we go on bigs. I frankly don't think it's worth the money given the premium paid to the position. Guys like Dynes from YSU have received massive bag despite putting up pretty pedestrian numbers in not so great conferences. Dollars go much further spending on forwards and guards as those positions are more plentiful. Not to mention whoever we sign will likely only be playing ~20 minutes a game as they would be splitting time with Lyles.

 

And you'd still have your senior 6th Man of the Year PG, who arguably was your most steady, stabilizing player all season (led the team in assists-to-turnover ratio), along with your All Freshman Team PG who led the team in 3P%. 

 

Nate took the most shots on the team, yet had one of the lowest FG%. Tavari took the second most shots and was slightly more efficient scoring wise, but did not run the offense very well at times either (led the team in TO). 

 

My point is the accolades being used to amplify the losses of Nate and most likely Tavari are volume-based accolades from the two highest scorers on the best team in the league. Nate's 14 PPG was good for 378th nationally in that category and Tavari's 13 PPG ranked him 518th. We have talent currently that, if given similar volume, can put up very similar numbers in possibly a more efficient manner. We also have 2, most likely 3 open roster spots to add even more talent. Assuming Tavari departs, we'll likely be bigger at all 3 roster spots, too. 

 

I'm not saying we'd necessarily be better without them; that remains to be seen. I'm saying their production is nowhere near irreplaceable, especially given their inability to produce most of the time vs top talent OOC. 

Edited 18 hours ago by Let'sGoZips94

[Illini Zip]

Great debate guys. I do think their production can be replaced and there are times TJ will come down the court with his mind already made up that he is going to shoot instead of taking what the defense presents. That said, if we do have a significant overhaul I’m concerned it will take all OOC to gel again, relegating us a poor seed in the NCAAT if we are fortunate to get there. Too early to panic though. Have a nice day. 

[Zippy87]

11 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

You're going to have a hard time convincing me that a 67.1% FG% with 18 mpg is a poor offensive player. Low volume? Sure, but that's insane efficiency. Freeman is exhibit A of what efficiency can lead to on offense. Is Evan capable of the offensive ceiling that Nate has? Probably not, and maybe offensive game wasn't the right verbiage for the comparison, but I don't think there's a huge drop off production wise on offense going from Nate to Evan. 

 

I don't expect Evan to play a similar role either and that's a good thing. I'd rather our PGs facilitate the offense rather than the isolation ball we saw too much of this season. 

 

MMK shot 69% last year. Do you think he's close to the offensive player Nate is?

 

Nate has a solid mid-range game and is a respectable three-point shooter (33% career). Evan hasn't shown the ability to score beyond shots close to the rim. He wasn't much different in high school, either, so this isn't a "role" situation. 

 

Listen, I share your optimism. I think Evan will be valuable and that the coaches will find players who can fill in some of scoring we're losing. But there's just nothing to suggest Evan is going to be close offensively to Nate. Shooting 67% in limited minutes on limited attempts isn't convincing. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

12 minutes ago, Zippy87 said:

 

MMK shot 69% last year. Do you think he's close to the offensive player Nate is?

 

Nate has a solid mid-range game and is a respectable three-point shooter (33% career). Evan hasn't shown the ability to score beyond shots close to the rim. He wasn't much different in high school, either, so this isn't a "role" situation. 

 

Listen, I share your optimism. I think Evan will be valuable and that the coaches will find players who can fill in some of scoring we're losing. But there's just nothing to suggest Evan is going to be close offensively to Nate. Shooting 67% in limited minutes on limited attempts isn't convincing. 

 

Like I said, offensive game was probably the wrong verbiage. However, seeing the highlights, he has dribble-drive capabilities and he is more developed basketball IQ wise on the offense end than MMK. He looks to make backdoor cuts and make runs towards the hoop on baseline drives by his teammates. Scheming towards his explosiveness/athleticism is something I expect Groce to do, in addition to his put backs and clean ups. Let's say he takes 6-8 shots per game from these scenarios, which is a realistic range given his expected increased role at Akron vs Ohio State. If he's making 50% minimum, that's 6-8 pts; 60% is 7-10 pts. Add in some free throws, and you're not far off from Nate's more inefficient 14 PPG. 

[clarkwgriswold]

I've been in and out the last 2 or 3 days.  Have we seen anything official yet on Tavari?

[zippy5]

19 minutes ago, clarkwgriswold said:

I've been in and out the last 2 or 3 days.  Have we seen anything official yet on Tavari?

No

[AkronAlumnus]

Nate Johnson to Kansas State

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 minute ago, AkronAlumnus said:

Nate Johnson to Kansas State

 

Rumor has it K State offered north of $1 million.