I think you're overlooking the fact that the Chipps started MAC play going 6-2 in their first 8 games, but finished 7-11. That means they went 1-9 down the stretch. I'm definitely buying Ohio winning that game. That being said, I'm not sure why people are scared about Ohio in Cleveland. I've seen them blow numerous double digit 2nd half leads this MAC season. They just don't perform well under pressure, which is what a single elimination tournament is all about. I think they will be great if Boals keeps them together in the next year or two, but right now they're too inexperienced.
Lunardi is one of the worst bracketologists out there. Bracketmatrix tracks 107 brackets per year and usually Lunardi places in the 70s or 80s when it comes to how close his bracket matches up with the committees. There are literally people who do their brackets as a hobby on wordpress that are better than Lunardi at predicting the field. Lunardi just gets the notoriety that he does because he works for ESPN.