The World of College Football

[kreed5120]

9 minutes ago, ZippyDoo said:

Playing around on Google today...

 

1,043,716 high school students play 11 player tackle football in the United States....

 

Division 1: 3.4 % (Roughly 1 in 30 high school players make it to a D1 program)

 

Division 2: 1.9 % ( Roughly 1 in 53 high school players)

 

Division 3: 2.5 % (Roughly 1 in 40 high school players

 

This seems crazy to see that it is "easier" to make it to a D1 program than a D2 program but this is explained by by the fact that there are more D1 schools in FBS and FCS than there are in D2 programs and the D1 programs carry larger rosters.

I'm not sure that's the correct way to look at it. 

 

Top 3.4% play D1

3.4%-5.3% play D2

5.3%-7.8% play D3

 

Anyone who played D1 likely had options to play D2 or D3. Most who played D3 didn't have options to play D1. Obviously there are exceptions. Therefore I would say D1 is naturally more challenging to get into even though it has a higher player count.

Edited October 29 by kreed5120

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 hour ago, Blue & Gold said:

Agreed. I was only joking. These stats are from a few years ago but are probably still pretty accurate in that only 7% of high school athletes will play college ball on any level. Less than 1% are good enough to go D1… but even at the D3 level you’re still watching the top 7% of athletes the country has to offer. 

 

D3 gets a little tricky because they don't (legally) offer athletic scholarships. There are guys attending Akron, Kent, Ohio State, etc., who aren't there to play sports, that are as or more athletic than most D3 athletes, but they couldn't afford or didn't want to pay the high tuition that comes with going the D3 route. 

 

On the flip side, a school like Hoban is a combination of many top athletes in the region (which is a VERY good HS football/athletics region) or even beyond because they can recruit. I remember when I was in an underclassmen at a greater Akron area high school, there were a couple kids in my class and the class below that were REALLY solid athletes that never made it to my high school because Hoban & St. V plucked them after middle school. Massillon would be another example of a NEO high school that could be in the argument against a D3 school, although in any scenario I think D3 ultimately wins out due to depth, age, size, etc. 

[Blue & Gold]

Yes. I’m on my phone so typing is kind of a drag, but I’ll try to explain my understanding of the statistics.

7% is the total number of college players. 

The bottom of that 7% would be playing D3.
From the 7% you whittle it down for players with D2 offers (for illustration let’s just say 5% of high schoolers.)

From that 5% you whittle it down further for players with FCS offers (let’s just say 2% of high schoolers).

And then from that 2% you finally whittle it down to ~>1% receiving FBS offers.

You could probably even whittle that ~1% even further if you separated players out w/ P5 offers as opposed to only G6 offers, but I’ve not seen stats on that.

 

Also, if fewer high schoolers are playing football nowadays than in years past that would also affect the percentage b/c the number of available scholarships would remain constant.

[ZippyRulz]

Mike Locksley out at Maryland, he is owed ~$10M

 

Dave Doeren out at NC State, he is owed ~$10M

 

Dave Aranda out at Baylor, he is owed ~$12M

 

Mike Norvell out at FSU, he is owed ~$50M

 

Phil Longo out at Sam Houston State, he is owed ~$2.8M

 

??? out at ???, he is owed ~$0.5M

 

 

 

 

Edited November 3 by ZippyRulz

[ZippyDoo]

On 10/29/2026 at 2:29 PM, Blue & Gold said:

Yes. I’m on my phone so typing is kind of a drag, but I’ll try to explain my understanding of the statistics.

7% is the total number of college players. 

The bottom of that 7% would be playing D3.
From the 7% you whittle it down for players with D2 offers (for illustration let’s just say 5% of high schoolers.)

From that 5% you whittle it down further for players with FCS offers (let’s just say 2% of high schoolers).

And then from that 2% you finally whittle it down to ~>1% receiving FBS offers.

You could probably even whittle that ~1% even further if you separated players out w/ P5 offers as opposed to only G6 offers, but I’ve not seen stats on that.

 

Also, if fewer high schoolers are playing football nowadays than in years past that would also affect the percentage b/c the number of available scholarships would remain constant.

Basically the easiest way I was always told to remember was this:

 

there are roughly 1 million kids that play 11 on 11 tackle football in high school in the US.

Of that 1 million approximately 1% of that will go on to play Division 1 football.   

Of the 1 % that play Division 1 football, only 1 % of that will go on to play in the NFL. 

only about 1 % of all players that play in the NFL, actually make it into the NFL.  

[ZippyDoo]

13 hours ago, ZippyRulz said:

Mike Locksley out at Maryland, he is owed ~$10M

 

Dave Doeren out at NC State, he is owed ~$10M

 

Dave Aranda out at Baylor, he is owed ~$12M

 

Mike Norvell out at FSU, he is owed ~$50M

 

Phil Longo out at Sam Houston State, he is owed ~$2.8M

 

??? out at ???, he is owed ~$600K

 

 

 

Can you imagine, 50 million dollars, to not work??????????? my goodness.....

[GP1]

5 hours ago, ZippyDoo said:

Can you imagine, 50 million dollars, to not work??????????? my goodness.....

Yes. I can imagine it. Where do I sign up. 

[Captain Kangaroo]

22 hours ago, ZippyDoo said:

only about 1 % of all players that play in the NFL, actually make it into the NFL.  

🤔

[zippy5]

Makes you think 

[GP1]

100% of the puts that come up short of the cup never go in. 

[UAZipster0305]

On 11/2/2026 at 12:26 PM, ZippyDoo said:

Can you imagine, 50 million dollars, to not work??????????? my goodness.....

And all as a reward for not being good at one's job!

[UAZipster0305]

On 11/2/2026 at 12:25 PM, ZippyDoo said:

only about 1 % of all players that play in the NFL, actually make it into the NFL.  

Cue Frank Caliendo in his John Madden voice.

[kreed5120]

11 minutes ago, UAZipster0305 said:

And all as a reward for not being good at one's job!

 

TBF you had to at least be good enough at your job at some point to get the contract initially. I don't really follow FSU so I can't speculate on what led to the rapid regression.

[UAZipster0305]

17 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

 

TBF you had to at least be good enough at your job at some point to get the contract initially. I don't really follow FSU so I can't speculate on what led to the rapid regression.

Or just have the right pedigree as to what some specific AD is fetishizing at the moment. E.g. Ianello and his ND connection or Arth and his having led his team to one big upset in a past position.

[kreed5120]

21 minutes ago, UAZipster0305 said:

Or just have the right pedigree as to what some specific AD is fetishizing at the moment. E.g. Ianello and his ND connection or Arth and his having led his team to one big upset in a past position.

 

The situations really aren't comparable. Akron at best is an entry level FBS position. If you're getting a ~$70 million guaranteed you did at least something at the FBS level to show potential.

Edited Thursday at 04:50 PM by kreed5120

[UAZipster0305]

4 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

 

The situations really aren't comparable. Akron at best is an extra level FBS position. If you're getting a ~$70 million guaranteed you did at least something at the FBS level to show potential.

I agree with you. However, there is enough commonality to consider them in tandem.

 

In both cases, relative to the average person, these coaches have achieved an absurd pay rate relative to even elite professionals (doctors, lawyers, engineers, tech) all while simply rising to their highest level of incompetence for a job that arguably has no meaning in terms of societal needs.

[kreed5120]

9 minutes ago, UAZipster0305 said:

 

In both cases, relative to the average person, these coaches have achieved an absurd pay rate relative to even elite professionals (doctors, lawyers, engineers, tech) all while simply rising to their highest level of incompetence for a job that arguably has no meaning in terms of societal needs.

 

I don't disagree with this, but that's true for sports, movies, music, etc industries. You have to look at it through the scope of their profession.

[kreed5120]

5 year/$1.7B deal with ESPN signed to expand the CFP. There will be 19 at-large bids with each P4 getting 1 auto-bid, along with top G6. All P4 conference championship games eliminated.

 

No mention on if G6 will be eliminating theirs. I hope not as maybe 1 out of every 20 years will a MAC team be in position to get the G6 bid. MAC Championship will be the largest prize to play for most years.

Edited yesterday at 09:07 PM by kreed5120

[exit322]

I don't think the MAC is going to eliminate theirs, for the reasons you noted.  It's the only real prize we'll have unless they do a G6 playoff.  As it stands, the playoffs will pretty much be the P4 plus the Pac-12 just about every year.

[kreed5120]

15 minutes ago, exit322 said:

I don't think the MAC is going to eliminate theirs, for the reasons you noted.  It's the only real prize we'll have unless they do a G6 playoff.  As it stands, the playoffs will pretty much be the P4 plus the Pac-12 just about every year.

 

With P4 eliminating conference championships you would also think it would make G6 conference championships games more valuable. Less inventory to compete with that weekend and in theory those games will land better time/channel slots than they would otherwise

[UAZipster0305]

3 hours ago, exit322 said:

I don't think the MAC is going to eliminate theirs, for the reasons you noted.  It's the only real prize we'll have unless they do a G6 playoff.  As it stands, the playoffs will pretty much be the P4 plus the Pac-12 just about every year.

Without an automatic bid for all FBS conferences upon expanding the playoffs, we are already a lower tier division. We might as well formalize it and have our own playoff and real competition.

[zippy5]

There won't be conference championship games for G6 either unless we go to 11 game seasons

[exit322]

12 minutes ago, zippy5 said:

There won't be conference championship games for G6 either unless we go to 11 game seasons

 

If I had to bet, I'd say the MAC keeps its title game.

[zippy5]

2 minutes ago, exit322 said:

 

If I had to bet, I'd say the MAC keeps its title game.

You'd either have to cut to 11 games or admit you're never making the CFP and play it during a playoff week. Which I don't even know if ESPN would allow? Just logistically don't see when it gets played, because the old championship week is now standalone Army/Navy week 

Edited 7 hours ago by zippy5

[exit322]

2 minutes ago, zippy5 said:

You'd either have to cut to 11 games or admit you're never making the CFP and play it during a playoff week. Which I don't even know if ESPN would allow? Just logistically don't see when it gets played, because the old championship week is now standalone Army/Navy week 

 

ESPN doesn't show the Army/Navy game.  That's not going to be a standalone week going forward.

 

With all the money, if the AAC keeps its title game (less likely, they think they will be the playoff league if the Pac-12 eats itself) they might get told to move it anyways.