The World of College Football

[Zipmeister]

Given the Big 12's recent addition of Colorado, Utah, AZ, and AZ St, I'll wager you don't have to kick over too many rocks to find Big 12 stakeholders who seriously regret previously admitting Cincy, UCF and Houston. Cincy and UCF in particular seemed like good lifelines at the time, but now, not so much.

[scottditzen]

23 minutes ago, Zipmeister said:

Given the Big 12's recent addition of Colorado, Utah, AZ, and AZ St, I'll wager you don't have to kick over too many rocks to find Big 12 stakeholders who seriously regret previously admitting Cincy, UCF and Houston. Cincy and UCF in particular seemed like good lifelines at the time, but now, not so much.

 

Don't forget there's a TV market size aspect somewhere in all of this craziness. Houston is top ten and Cincy is 30-ish. 

[GP1]

12 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Top MAC/Sun Belt would all join the AAC before the top AAC/MAC/Sun Belt created their own conference. AAC has the most lucrative media deal already in place, and that's what this realignment is all about. AAC is underrated, even with the Cincy/UCF/Houston departures. Tulane beat USC in the Cotton Bowl. UAB, Charlotte, ECU, FAU, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, USF, SMU, Temple, Wichita State (basketball) are all formidable opponents. Their dead weight is really just Rice. Temple, UTSA, and Tulsa are the other members I haven't mentioned yet. I would take ALL of them over EMU/WMU/CMU/NIU/Balls/etc.

 

There are 6 slots available for the top 6 ranked conference champions in the new 12 team playoff format. 

 

- American

- ACC

- Big12

- Big Ten

- CUSA

- MAC

- MW

- PAC12(?)

- SEC

- Sun Belt

 

ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are locks for 4 slots, and probably the top 4 that get the automatic BYE to the Quarterfinals. That leaves 2 slots available for the American, CUSA, MAC, MW, PAC12(?), and Sun Belt. We all know this is all about money, and since we live in an imperfect world, let's say the ranking preferences will go as the following...

 

- PAC12(?)

- American

- MW

- MAC/Sun Belt

- CUSA

 

4 conferences are on the outside looking in. 6 conferences have to counter the recent P5 realignment to bolster their position in the playoff race and media deal race. What happens? Who knows; we'll see. This will be fun to watch, though. 

This all looks very convoluted, because it is. 

 

I think what is happening is much more simple. The P5 schools are going to dominate whatever playoff they create, smaller schools will create a number of illusions for themselves and it will destroy the regular season like it has in college basketball. The people who run college football won't care because it will add up to more money.

 

The steps after that will be to consolidate money within the P5 schools and give the boot to the rest of the schools. Eventually, G5 schools will be forced to start their own division. They should avoid the ultimate embarrassment and do it now. 

[Zipmeister]

7 minutes ago, GP1 said:

 They should avoid the ultimate embarrassment and do it now. 

 

They may do that, just as soon as all (or most) G5's give up the hope of being the next Cincy, Houston, UCF.

[GP1]

29 minutes ago, Zipmeister said:

 

They may do that, just as soon as all (or most) G5's give up the hope of being the next Cincy, Houston, UCF.

Maybe we could carve out a better path for ourselves. The three schools you mention are on the verge of becoming some of the of the most irrelevant schools in the Big 12 and P5. Think Vandy.

[akzipper]

3 hours ago, Zipmeister said:

Given the Big 12's recent addition of Colorado, Utah, AZ, and AZ St, I'll wager you don't have to kick over too many rocks to find Big 12 stakeholders who seriously regret previously admitting Cincy, UCF and Houston. Cincy and UCF in particular seemed like good lifelines at the time, but now, not so much.

 

I would assume the BigTen feels the same way about Maryland and Rutgers. What do they bring to the table in that conference other than the NYC market? 

[Zipmeister]

30 minutes ago, akzipper said:

 

I would assume the BigTen feels the same way about Maryland and Rutgers. What do they bring to the table in that conference other than the NYC market? 

 

Rutgers has a fine intramural sports program.

In addition, in both 1933 and 1934, Rutgers won the collegiate national championship in power boating.

And they also claim the national championship in football the first year it was a collegiate sport – 1869.

 

Maryland has a more extensive history of national athletic championships.

https://umterps.com/sports/2015/4/30/national-championships.aspx

 

[ZippyRulz]

17 hours ago, akzipper said:

 

I would assume the BigTen feels the same way about Maryland and Rutgers. What do they bring to the table in that conference other than the NYC market? 

 

That's what they were intended to bring (NY/DC).

 

 

[ZippyRulz]

On 8/5/2023 at 10:09 AM, Zipmeister said:

Given the Big 12's recent addition of Colorado, Utah, AZ, and AZ St, I'll wager you don't have to kick over too many rocks to find Big 12 stakeholders who seriously regret previously admitting Cincy, UCF and Houston. Cincy and UCF in particular seemed like good lifelines at the time, but now, not so much.

 

And those stakeholders might have somewhat over-inflated opinions of schools like KS State, OK State, WVU, etc.

 

 

[Let'sGoZips94]

Pete Thamel was a fascinating segment on the Pat McAfee Show today. 

 

- ACC schools are absolutely screwed from their media deal. Legal & financial nightmare 

 

- Remaining PAC4 schools are scrambling. Stanford and the ACC might have mutual interest. Like the ACC, they're also screwed, probably even more so because as of right now, they don't have a conference/schedule for 2024. 

 

- Talked about trimming the fat at some point as these conferences are becoming too large and the bottom half of the conferences aren't pulling their weight yet making the same amount as the conferences' upper echelon.

 

- Notre Dame is a wild card. If conference schedules go to 10 games, they're in trouble due to a lack of schools to play. Otherwise, it's thought that they could get $60-70M per year in their next media deal with NBC. They have a new AD that is coming in from NBC,big I heard correctly, too. 

 

- 6 conference champion playoff bids is only for the first 2 years of the new format deal, and will probably get changed to 5 as the PAC12 has seemingly vanished for good.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Let'sGoZips94

[GP1]

3 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

- ACC schools are absolutely screwed from their media deal. Legal & financial nightmare 

 

- Talked about trimming the fat at some point as these conferences are becoming too large and the bottom half of the conferences aren't pulling their weight yet making the same amount as the conferences' upper echelon.

 

- Notre Dame is a wild card. If conference schedules go to 10 games, they're in trouble due to a lack of schools to play. Otherwise, it's thought that they could get $60-70M per year in their next media deal with NBC. They have a new AD that is coming in from NBC,big I heard correctly, too. 

Three interesting points you pass along. 

 

First, the ACC is not screwed. The conference is stable and doesn't need to grow. They are swimming in money. Maybe they can't afford gold plated toilets in their football facility, but they will be ok. 

 

Trimming the fat indeed. Some day the highest level of college football will be played by 30-35 schools. This is just the beginning of the fat getting trimmed. G5 schools MUST find another path. 

 

ND should immediately jump into the ACC with both feet. It gives them a much needed home and the rest of the conference the extra money they are looking for. 

 

I think someone mentioned Stanford and ACC. Terrible idea. Bad for ACC and Stanford. A better idea is Stanford to the Big 12 and WVU to the ACC. The ACC should have admitted wvu years ago but they were afraid the Mountaineer would dominate the league immediately like VA Tech did. The tried to pass it off as wvu not having a big enough endowment, but everyone knew that was crap. They were scared. A great rivalry like The Backyard Brawl could happen every year. Rivalries like that are great for conferences. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

3 hours ago, GP1 said:

Three interesting points you pass along. 

 

First, the ACC is not screwed. The conference is stable and doesn't need to grow. They are swimming in money. Maybe they can't afford gold plated toilets in their football facility, but they will be ok. 

 

False. At least 7 schools have lawyers combing the conference membership contract for an out that won't cost over $100 million. Pete described the ACC as a Lord of the Flies world. The conference has 1/4th the media revenue of the Big Ten & SEC, and their contract runs through 2036. They are closer to American Athletic Conference revenue than SEC/Big Ten. The Big 12 is even in a better spot. 

[72 Roo]

If you are thinking geographically the addition of WVU to the ACC may make sense. The trouble is P5 college athletics thinks only in terms of revenue generated. That makes it ridiculous for WVU to leave the Big 12 for the much lesser finances of the ACC. Money guides all P5 decisions. The ACC grant of rights has screwed those schools for the next 12-13 years. 

[zippy5]

1 hour ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

False. At least 7 schools have lawyers combing the conference membership contract for an out that won't cost over $100 million. Pete described the ACC as a Lord of the Flies world. The conference has 1/4th the media revenue of the Big Ten & SEC, and their contract runs through 2036. They are closer to American Athletic Conference revenue than SEC/Big Ten. The Big 12 is even in a better spot. 

They've been combing, and they'll keep combing, and they ain't going anywhere.

[Let'sGoZips94]

31 minutes ago, zippy5 said:

They've been combing, and they'll keep combing, and they ain't going anywhere.

 

Bingo, thanks to the grant of rights that @72 Roo mentioned. Meanwhile, all 3 other major conferences will have at least 1 more media deal negotiated before the ACC media deal expires. The gap between the ACC and Big12/Big10/SEC is only going to grow. And I'll just be eating my popcorn, watching all of this madness ensue. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by Let'sGoZips94

[GP1]

8 hours ago, zippy5 said:

They've been combing, and they'll keep combing, and they ain't going anywhere.

Lawyers have been looking at it for years now, and I mean big city law firms. There is no out. FSU is screaming so loudly because there is nothing else they can do, much like a child who isn't getting his way. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by GP1

[GP1]

9 hours ago, 72 Roo said:

 The ACC grant of rights has screwed those schools for the next 12-13 years. 

If you mean screwed out of the same amount of money the other conferences are making, then yes. I wish we could get screwed that hard. Do they still have enough money to run their obnoxiously large athletic departments?.....Yes. They will have to pass on solid gold toilets in their training facilities, but they will be fine. This is sort of the point we have reached. 

 

I'm missing the part where all of this money translates to being able to complete at the highest levels. Miami made the final four of March Madness. Wake Forest made the final 3 of baseball. Virginia won men's tennis and UNC women's. Wake Forest won the women's golf championship. They have many other schools who compete at the highest levels of their sports. 

 

We've gotten to the point where schools are not competing on the field for championships but simply for revenue. They get fans all spun up about revenue, but it seems as if the revenue has reached its maximum impact for winning. Now they are just buying LED lighting, replacing one year old carpeting in offices and general stupidity. It's become utter insanity. 

[zippy5]

8 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Bingo, thanks to the grant of rights that @72 Roo mentioned. Meanwhile, all 3 other major conferences will have at least 1 more media deal negotiated before the ACC media deal expires. The gap between the ACC and Big12/Big10/SEC is only going to grow. And I'll just be eating my popcorn, watching all of this madness ensue. 

Possibly. Depends, these conferences have more mouths to feed now. Pay any attention to what's been going on at ESPN? They just fired almost everyone. Maybe it's not that bad to have some stability for ten years. These renegotiations might not end up being the gravy train they're hoping for.

 

Also, please don't include the big 12 with the Big Ten and SEC 😂

Edited August 8, 2023 by zippy5

[GP1]

8 minutes ago, zippy5 said:

Possibly. Depends, these conferences have more mouths to feed now. Pay any attention to what's been going on at ESPN? They just fired almost everyone. Maybe it's not that bad to have some stability for ten years. These renegotiations might not end up being the gravy train they're hoping for.

 

Also, please don't include the big 12 with the Big Ten and SEC 😂

Disney stock has been in decline for years now. They are going to have to place a huge bet on pay per view college football. It will test the dedication of the casual football viewer who is already paying for the NFL. 

 

If football is your favorite TV show, you may settle for free games in lieu of paying a premium for games. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

5 hours ago, zippy5 said:

Possibly. Depends, these conferences have more mouths to feed now. Pay any attention to what's been going on at ESPN? They just fired almost everyone. Maybe it's not that bad to have some stability for ten years. These renegotiations might not end up being the gravy train they're hoping for.

 

Also, please don't include the big 12 with the Big Ten and SEC 😂

 

If the goal is revenue, the schools & conferences that have made the moves don't lose. The media companies shelling out the dough might lose, but that's on them. ESPN (Disney) is dying because they've made very poor decisions with their products. The college football product hasn't gotten worse with these moves. It has arguably gotten better. The competition level within these conferences has grown, which should lead to slightly more parity. 

 

The Big 12 was only included with the SEC/Big 10 because it has a $100M+ larger media contract than the ACC, and a sooner renegotiating period for their next contract. They'll be closer to the SEC/Big 10 category than the ACC by that second deal, while the ACC is still sitting on their deal through 2036. Football wise they don't hold a candle, although basketball wise, the Big12 has probably solidified itself as the best basketball conference. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by Let'sGoZips94

[GP1]

4 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

The college football product hasn't gotten worse with these moves. It has arguably gotten better.

It is true that college football in general has gotten better, but that's largely a result of the transfer portal. 

 

Everyone is missing the giant elephant in the room, the NFL. They already dominate football watching on Thursday night even while putting out a bad product. If they decide Friday and Saturday games are a great way to grow their business (it is and they will) the networks won't have the money to pay top dollar for college because ratings will go to the NFL. 

[GP1]

10 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

The college football product hasn't gotten worse with these moves. It has arguably gotten better.

It is true that college football in general has gotten better, but that's largely a result of the transfer portal. 

 

Everyone is missing the giant elephant in the room, the NFL. They already dominate football watching on Thursday night even while putting out a bad product. If they decide Friday and Saturday games are a great way to grow their business (it is and they will) the networks won't have the money to pay top dollar for college because ratings will go to the NFL. 

 

Edit:  Unusually good editorial out of the Charlotte Observer. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/luke-decock/article278059432.html?taid=64d2c90266d1df0001ffc212&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

 

[catdaddyp]

6 minutes ago, GP1 said:

It is true that college football in general has gotten better, but that's largely a result of the transfer portal. 

 

Everyone is missing the giant elephant in the room, the NFL. They already dominate football watching on Thursday night even while putting out a bad product. If they decide Friday and Saturday games are a great way to grow their business (it is and they will) the networks won't have the money to pay top dollar for college because ratings will go to the NFL. 

 

Edit:  Unusually good editorial out of the Charlotte Observer. https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/luke-decock/article278059432.html?taid=64d2c90266d1df0001ffc212&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

 

That’s an interesting idea about NFL on Fridays and Saturdays. It wouldn’t go that well in the SEC foot print (especially on Saturdays) but maybe elsewhere.

[GP1]

11 hours ago, catdaddyp said:

That’s an interesting idea about NFL on Fridays and Saturdays. It wouldn’t go that well in the SEC foot print (especially on Saturdays) but maybe elsewhere.

A Dallas Cowboys game would easily out rate Texas vs Texas A&M. 

 

The NFL could flex a premier game into a Saturday night spot. Primetime NFL Saturday games would drive the best college games into the afternoon where the TV rights are less valuable. There will still be enough money for solid gold toilets in practice facilities, but the big schools might have to cut back to 3 coaches per position.

 

Television networks are currently running college athletics. None of this is out of the world of possibilities. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

10 minutes ago, GP1 said:

A Dallas Cowboys game would easily out rate Texas vs Texas A&M. 

 

The NFL could flex a premier game into a Saturday night spot. Primetime NFL Saturday games would drive the best college games into the afternoon where the TV rights are less valuable. There will still be enough money for solid gold toilets in practice facilities, but the big schools might have to cut back to 3 coaches per position.

 

Television networks are currently running college athletics. None of this is out of the world of possibilities. 

 

None of this is going to happen, at least not for a long time. The networks aren't going to cut their own arm off by having NFL games on Saturdays.