Can someone explain the "Luck" calculation on KenPom? Zips are negative .268, which apparently means unluckier than average.
I can think of a few factors that might affect the luck calculation:
Opponents foul shooting percentage. Not much defense involved in foul shooting, so in a game like Yale when the opponent shoots much higher than their average, you had bad luck. Maybe the pressure of a tight game, etc. affects foul shooting, but mostly luck.
3 Point shooting also has a bit of luck involved. Most 3-point shots are not taken unless they are open shots. A good defense may force a few time clock beater shots, but not most. If a team shoots 56% on threes, when they typically shoot around 40%, some of that could be bad defense, but also could be just bad luck.
Maybe playing against a team with an injured player is considered good luck. Is this a factor? Or playing without a player who is injured on your team is considered bad luck?
Anything else? I do not subscribe to KenPom so maybe subscribers have the answer (or maybe it is just a secret algorithm).