2024 Off-Season CBB Tracker & Discussion

[Illini Zip]

50 minutes ago, roopride said:

So by next March are we a better team then this year?

 

How does the team talent compare this yr to next?  I know EF skews the comparison.

I would say, not necessarily at the beginning on the year, but they should have a higher ceiling come March. And way more balanced. 

[ZipsFan31]

Freeman>Okonkwo 

but the supporting case has a chance to be better. It’s going to come down to 3 point shooting as last year that was our weak spot 

[kreed5120]

I still feel last years team never reached its peak potential. Tribble was probably the only player that exceeded my expectations coming into the season. Freeman may have slightly exceeded them too, but I expected a big year from him. Ali had a good year, but I expected more from him, particularly as a floor spacer. Everyone else fell well short of what I thought they'd do.

 

Per kenpom, last season was Groce's 4th best Akron squad. I want to say next year's team won't be as good as this one, but it's not like this year's team was all that special. The MAC on paper looks weaker. I think we can make it back to the tournament next year, but we probably won't be the odds on favorites to win the MAC.

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 hour ago, roopride said:

So by next March are we a better team then this year?

 

How does the team talent compare this yr to next?  I know EF skews the comparison.

 

Yes. Simply because this team will most likely have a true PG and be able to shoot at a much higher clip.

 

"Bigs"

 

Okonkwo will most likely be Freeman-lite; a little bit bigger, maybe more athletic, but not as versatile (no outside shot to my knowledge). 

 

Lyles is hopefully able to take that next step. He has the size and I think he has the athleticism. The question for me is can he become more decisive and make quicker decisions? We will see.

 

Baker is a versatile post player. He's maybe a bit bigger than Freeman was, but he has a jump shot like Freeman IIRC. He was nominated to be a McDonald's All American in high school IIRC and had a nice offer list after being a 1st Team All State player and top 10 prospect in the senior class for the state of Illinois. He'll push Lyles for solid PT this year after his redshirt year last season. 

 

Brisco is a redshirt candidate for me. He's Freeman size, but listed as a Center on his recruiting profiles. He had offers from TCU & Nebraska in high school, with additional interest from Pitt, Penn State, Pitino's Iona, etc. (no idea if he was offered). There isn't much out there on him except some nice dunk highlights. He's strong but looks to be still growing into his body. A year of development for him could really make him a formidable "big" as a redshirt freshman. If he doesn't redshirt, I could see Amani Lyles type minutes for him. 

 

 

Forwards

 

Josiah Harris will lead the group of forwards in production this year most likely. A high percentage 3P shooter with good size (6'7"), he is our Ali Ali replacement and very similar to Xeryius Williams (better shooter most likely). He was also WVU's rebounds per game leader last season (4+ RPG - and people wonder why WVU was 9-23 last season haha). Legitimately expecting 15 PPG from Mr. Harris. 

 

Musiime-Kamali will be an interesting player to watch. There isn't much out there on him, but he looked quite good in his summer AAU highlights. Someone who has seen him practice can probably provide a more realistic analysis and expectation for him, but he has the potential to be a solid contributor. Athletic with potentially a jump shot? 6'6" and long. Played against really good competition in high school/AAU and averaged double digits. 

 

 

Guards

 

Loaded group. 

 

Sharron Young is who I believe will be the starting PG this upcoming season. The entire WVU transfer class revolves around Sharron coming to Akron. This kid is special and can do it all. Look for him to be in the running for MAC Freshman of the Year and All MAC in general. 

 

Tavari is most likely his direct backup. Tavari needs to make great strides in his game this offseason. He needs to lock in his shot, defense, and decision making. He could be a very special guard, but mental defenses and a lack of effort have held him back. 

 

Seth will most likely be the starting SG. His off-the-ball shooting percentage is much much better than his on-ball production. He's big, plays good defense (comes from Huggins' system so of course), and will be a leader on this team. 

 

Shammah is going to be one of the first off the bench most likely. There's a chance he pushes for PG minutes, too, but we saw him mostly in off-the-ball guard situations last year. He needs to lock in his shot more, but he really came in at the end of this last season. 

 

Nate is most likely our starting 3G/SF. Really looking forward to having Nate healthy all season. If his shot is as good as it was before he got hurt last season, look out. Nate has All MAC potential. 

 

Prather Jr is the lone sophomore on this team, and I'm looking forward to seeing him healthy this year. He was held back by the early season injuries last year, but when he eventually played, he flashed moments of being a great shooter. His defense will need to improve, but he could become a better-shooting Chanel Banks. 

 

Mahaffey is the other redshirt candidate for me on this roster. Quite frankly, we're just loaded at guard. I think a year to develop after his recent growth spurt would also be good for him. 

 

 

 

By my count, there are 7-8 guys on this roster that should be able to shoot the ball quite well. There were maybe 5-6 guys last year that shot decently well, and even less that us fans actually wanted to shoot the ball. We also lacked a true PG, which we'll have at least one, hopefully 2+ (Tavari's development being key) next season. We had 3 players averaging double digit scoring last season; I think there's a chance 4-5 guys average 10+ PPG. I think our bench is deeper next season, especially from a scoring perspective. The scoring floor with this team should be higher than last season. Defensively, all 3 transfers were recruited by Huggins - defense shouldn't be a problem next season. 

 

This team is very much built like Groce's 2010 & 2012 Ohio teams. We know what happened at the end of those seasons. Just saying. 

 

Really really excited for next year. 

Edited April 19 by Let'sGoZips94

[RoyalBlu]

3 hours ago, Illini Zip said:

I would say, not necessarily at the beginning on the year, but they should have a higher ceiling come March. And way more balanced. 

 

Frankly ... with 3 years of P5 experience on hand at multiple positions, along with the holdovers for depth, this team SHOULD be able to make a statement or two (read: WIN) vs. P5 non-conference opponents in November and December, then improve over the course of the season in the MAC.

 

Not predicting or expecting anything like an undefeated MAC season, but on paper this Akron team seems to compare with those good Buffalo teams, and they were able to establish themselves both in non-conference and conference.

 

If Akron can do the same, I think the MAC and post-season aspirations should be easily attained.

 

[Illini Zip]

I think there is a psychological aspect to shooting and it’s the reason Groce doesn’t like to talk about it. Talking about it raises doubt and that leads to a spiraling lack of confidence. I think even our good shooters struggled because the pressure to help out Freeman was so intense. Hopefully the additions of Harris and Wilson will lift that pressure and the others can play more carefree and better as a result. 
 

Even though this last team was flawed and peaked early they had heart and determination. They grinded their way to that tournament championship. It wasn’t pretty, but they earned it. And even though I agree that Sharron Young is a major draw for the WV transfers, winning the MAC tournament was likely a prerequisite to this rebuild happening. So kudos to the Ali, Freeman and Tribble class of Zips for continuing our upward projection. Future is still bright. 

 

 

Edited April 19 by Illini Zip

[Illini Zip]

1 hour ago, RoyalBlu said:

 

Frankly ... with 3 years of P5 experience on hand at multiple positions, along with the holdovers for depth, this team SHOULD be able to make a statement or two (read: WIN) vs. P5 non-conference opponents in November and December, then improve over the course of the season in the MAC.

 

Not predicting or expecting anything like an undefeated MAC season, but on paper this Akron team seems to compare with those good Buffalo teams, and they were able to establish themselves both in non-conference and conference.

 

If Akron can do the same, I think the MAC and post-season aspirations should be easily attained.

 

We agree. I have already stated that Groce should not let up on the OOC schedule at all. This incoming group can handle it mentally, but they are learning a new system with new teammates. Even our players from last year will have different roles, greater expectations and a different style of offense to learn. 
 

Edit: Also, all three WV transfers need to work on their mid-range game this offseason. 
 

 

Edited April 19 by Illini Zip

[zippy5]

19 minutes ago, RoyalBlu said:

 

Frankly ... with 3 years of P5 experience on hand at multiple positions, along with the holdovers for depth, this team SHOULD be able to make a statement or two (read: WIN) vs. P5 non-conference opponents in November and December, then improve over the course of the season in the MAC.

 

Not predicting or expecting anything like an undefeated MAC season, but on paper this Akron team seems to compare with those good Buffalo teams, and they were able to establish themselves both in non-conference and conference.

 

If Akron can do the same, I think the MAC and post-season aspirations should be easily attained.

 

This is a good point. These wvu and UNC kids aren't going to shy away from a OSU or JMU or whatever big opportunity we have, that we haven't been able to get over the hump to this point 

[RoyalBlu]

 

Another note: Unlike many on this board and others, I believe the MAC will be a much much tougher conference overall next season. (Hopefully it shows as early as non-conference).

 

Yes, it's hard to predict each team with all the portal comings and goings, but judging from what teams like Ohio, BG, Toledo, Ball State and Kent have added, I would expect all to be better.

 

Like Akron, those teams have not necessarily replaced departed 'players' as much as they have recruited to their weaknesses. Ohio, for example, desperately needed some size inside, and got it with a 6-10, 250-pound portal. Yes, he's D2, but he has a solid resume and should be a rotational player at the least.

 

I think the same can be said for incoming transfers at these other MAC schools. Toledo, for example, was not the 3-point shooting team last year that they usually are. Now, all of their portal recruits are proven 3-point shooters at the college level (2 from the MAC).

 

Time will tell how good all of these players are on their new teams, ... but in terms of recruiting to their weaknesses, it seems most MAC teams have done that, getting players with proven experience or (like Akron) P5 pedigree.

 

 

[ZipsFan31]

Here is my way too early line up 

Starters 

Sharron Young 20 minutes 

Seth Wilson 25 minutes 

Nate Johnson 25 minutes 

Josiah Harris 35 minutes 

James Okonkwo 30 minutes 

 

Bench

Shammah Scott: 20 minutes 

Tavari Johnson 15 minutes 

Ryan Prather 20 minutes 

Darrian Baker 10 minutes 

 

Get minutes only due to injury or fouls 

Amani Lyles 

MMK  

 

[1981 grad]

We just lost our 4 best players to graduation including the MAC player of the year and the players that remain from last year were underwhelming.  (Scott, Tavari, Johnson, Prather, Lyles)  There is no way anyone can predict how good we will be next year as West Virginia Transfer U.  With the transfer pool, this is going to be the new reality.  I was so disappointed with our transfers last year (Thornton and Scott) that I am just wary of relying on new transfers.  Lets hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.   

[Hilltopper]

We will not be playing an OOC schedule like last season. Expect a Dambrot style OOC slate. Too many new pieces to put together before MAC play. Anything less than a 20 win season hurts future recruiting. Winners want to play at winning programs.

[Let'sGoZips94]

56 minutes ago, Hilltopper said:

We will not be playing an OOC schedule like last season. Expect a Dambrot style OOC slate. Too many new pieces to put together before MAC play. Anything less than a 20 win season hurts future recruiting. Winners want to play at winning programs.

 

UNLV, St Bonnie, South Dakota St, Bradley, Northern Kentucky, Gardner Webb - those were the non tournament/SBC Challenge opponents. 

 

Are we really not looking to at least match that? 

[LZIp]

1 hour ago, Hilltopper said:

We will not be playing an OOC schedule like last season. Expect a Dambrot style OOC slate. Too many new pieces to put together before MAC play. Anything less than a 20 win season hurts future recruiting. Winners want to play at winning programs.

Meh. Even with our “beefed up” OOC last season, it’s not like we beat teams we didn’t typically beat. SDSU’s, Northern Kentucky’s, and middling Sun Belt teams are the teams we should beat every season. Point being - tougher OOC didn’t seem to hurt recruiting at all even though we didn’t follow through. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

On 4/19/2024 at 6:06 PM, Hilltopper said:

We will not be playing an OOC schedule like last season. Expect a Dambrot style OOC slate. Too many new pieces to put together before MAC play. Anything less than a 20 win season hurts future recruiting. Winners want to play at winning programs.

 

Ignore the quote. 

 

 

 

[zippy5]

4 of the top 10 are mid majors. I thought this was killing mid major basketball 

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 minute ago, zippy5 said:

4 of the top 10 are mid majors. I thought this was killing mid major basketball 

 

Only 5 of the "losses" are P6s, although a lot of that has to do with coaching changes at mid majors. 

 

I truly believe the Portal will balance things out in the long run. Allowing P6 role guys the opportunity to get legitimate playing time at mid majors is a positive. 

[zippy5]

4 minutes ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Only 5 of the "losses" are P6s, although a lot of that has to do with coaching changes at mid majors. 

 

I truly believe the Portal will balance things out in the long run. Allowing P6 role guys the opportunity to get legitimate playing time at mid majors is a positive. 

So half. And almost half the gains are mid majors. Almost like it's pretty even. It's just musical chairs, every school will tell you it's worse for their situation. Luckily we have a culture here that people want to be a part of

[Let'sGoZips94]

20 minutes ago, zippy5 said:

So half. And almost half the gains are mid majors. Almost like it's pretty even. It's just musical chairs, every school will tell you it's worse for their situation. Luckily we have a culture here that people want to be a part of

 

It's rough for schools like CMU who have seemingly lost their entire team and don't have an established culture to sell to transfers. However, in the long run I think even they will have a decent pool of talent sitting in their chairs in the end. 

 

Interestingly enough, one of the comments mentioned that UMASS is in the Bottom 35 of losses. I'm sure that'll change, but I do wonder if the eventual move to the MAC after this season is having any affect. 

Edited April 21 by Let'sGoZips94

[Reslife4Life]

On 4/19/2024 at 5:00 PM, 1981 grad said:

We just lost our 4 best players to graduation including the MAC player of the year and the players that remain from last year were underwhelming.  (Scott, Tavari, Johnson, Prather, Lyles)  There is no way anyone can predict how good we will be next year as West Virginia Transfer U.  With the transfer pool, this is going to be the new reality.  I was so disappointed with our transfers last year (Thornton and Scott) that I am just wary of relying on new transfers.  Lets hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.   

 

We made March Madness with Thornton and Scott, I think they played their role well

[kreed5120]

2 hours ago, zippy5 said:

4 of the top 10 are mid majors. I thought this was killing mid major basketball 

9 out of the top 10 losers are also mid-majors. Not to mention the losers are losing a lot more NET OVR (not familiar with what that metric exactly is) than the top gainers are gaining. I'm counting in total 13 P6 (including Gonzaga) on the top gainers. That's nearly half the list. I'm only counting 4 P6 on the top losers list. Furthermore, there are 350+ D1 basketball programs and only about 1/4 of them come from a P6 conference therefore one would expect more mid-majors on both lists. 

 

Either way the data shows mid-majors are getting hit much harder on transfers. That's not to say a program like Akron isn't holding their own, but for every Akron there are 3 or 4 CMU types out there that have had their roster gutted.

Edited April 21 by kreed5120

[Let'sGoZips94]

2 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

9 out of the top 10 losers are also mid-majors. Not to mention the losers are losing a lot more NET OVR (not familiar with what that metric exactly is) than the top gainers are gaining. I'm counting in total 13 P6 (including Gonzaga) on the top gainers. That's nearly half the list. I'm only counting 4 P6 on the top losers list. Furthermore, there are 350+ D1 basketball programs and only about 1/4 of them come from a P6 conference therefore one would expect more mid-majors on both lists. 

 

Either way the data shows mid-majors are getting hit much harder on transfers. That's not to say a program like Akron isn't holding their own, but for every Akron there are 3 or 4 CMU types out there that have had their roster gutted.

 

That data is skewed by coaching changes.

 

Indiana State, Canisius, Southern Illinois, UT Martin, FAU, Drake, and Pepperdine all had coaching changes. With the coaching change comes entire roster turnover.  

[RoyalBlu]

12 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Ignore the quote. 

 

 

 

 

 

Obviously, Akron is far and away the Portal leader in the MAC. But how would you rank the likes of Toledo, Ohio, CMU, BG, Kent in terms of transfers (not HS) recruits coming in?

 

Seems like they all got something out of the portal.

 

[1981 grad]

1 hour ago, Reslife4Life said:

 

We made March Madness with Thornton and Scott, I think they played their role well

All season long Scott could not make a layup, Thornton could not make a foul shot, and neither could hit the 3 ball.  We made March madness because of our seniors and some good play from Tavari in the quarter and simi final.  Also, the brain fart from Kent in last seconds also played a role in getting to the tourney.  

[Let'sGoZips94]

19 minutes ago, RoyalBlu said:

 

Obviously, Akron is far and away the Portal leader in the MAC. But how would you rank the likes of Toledo, Ohio, CMU, BG, Kent in terms of transfers (not HS) recruits coming in?

 

Seems like they all got something out of the portal.

 

 

The person who put this together is going to clean up his working spreadsheet with this data and make it public. I'll be able to answer your question better once I have that. 

 

Ohio is probably second to Akron with the addition of the Iowa State guard. That kid is probably going to be a pain in our ass. Ohio also hasn't really lost any production to the Portal.