Game 14- Miami

[csims0917]

This game is currently ranked as a Q1 game for us. Could be a game changer for the resume. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 hour ago, csims0917 said:

This game is currently ranked as a Q1 game for us. Could be a game changer for the resume. 

 

Because it's on the road, it will likely remain a Q1 game unless Miami really falters. It has a high Q2 floor. 

Edited December 31, 2025 by Let'sGoZips94

[Zips1991]

I've been worrying about Miami's 3-point shooting (and our lack of 3-point defense) for several days now. Someone please tell me why we're gonna be okay in this game. 😆

[roopride]

It’s a new year. We will be fine!

[kreed5120]

18 minutes ago, Zips1991 said:

I've been worrying about Miami's 3-point shooting (and our lack of 3-point defense) for several days now. Someone please tell me why we're gonna be okay in this game. 😆

 

This is how I'm feeling as well. We've been able to run up the score on the cupcakes we've faced, but pissed down our legs against the 2 quality mid-majors we've faced. Mainly due to being out of position defensively.

 

I'm hopeful we can turn it around, but on the road against a quality opponent this will likely be our toughest test in MAC play. History shows no MAC team has gone undefeated in conference play since 1958. If I had to pick a game on the conference schedule that we're most likely to lose it would be this one.

[Zips1991]

28 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

 

This is how I'm feeling as well. We've been able to run up the score on the cupcakes we've faced, but pissed down our legs against the 2 quality mid-majors we've faced. Mainly due to being out of position defensively.

 

I'm hopeful we can turn it around, but on the road against a quality opponent this will likely be our toughest test in MAC play. History shows no MAC team has gone undefeated in conference play since 1958. If I had to pick a game on the conference schedule that we're most likely to lose it would be this one.

I agree, it just stinks that it's so early in the conference schedule.

[NWAkron]

58 minutes ago, Zips1991 said:

I've been worrying about Miami's 3-point shooting (and our lack of 3-point defense) for several days now. Someone please tell me why we're gonna be okay in this game. 😆

Sight lines at Millett Hall are brutal.

[Zips1991]

9 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

Sight lines at Millett Hall are brutal.

I've never been there but it looks like it would be tough to shoot there, based on how it looks on TV. It reminds me of the ballrooms that some of the early season tournaments are held in, just bigger.

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 hour ago, kreed5120 said:

 

This is how I'm feeling as well. We've been able to run up the score on the cupcakes we've faced, but pissed down our legs against the 2 quality mid-majors we've faced. Mainly due to being out of position defensively.

 

I'm hopeful we can turn it around, but on the road against a quality opponent this will likely be our toughest test in MAC play. History shows no MAC team has gone undefeated in conference play since 1958. If I had to pick a game on the conference schedule that we're most likely to lose it would be this one.

 

We didn't watch the same games then. Not sure how putting up 94 and 100 respectively in those losses is "pissing down our legs." And don't give me the "Well we gave up 97 and 115 pts in those games," counterargument because both opponents simply had insane shooting performances. Akron is not defensively worse than the majority of teams Yale & Murray State have played, yet neither team has duplicated the shooting performance they each had vs. Akron. Could the defense have been better? Of course. Did we pee down our leg in those games? No. Pissing down our leg would've been shooting 15% from 3, putting up 65 pts, and losing by 30.

 

2 hours ago, Zips1991 said:

I've been worrying about Miami's 3-point shooting (and our lack of 3-point defense) for several days now. Someone please tell me why we're gonna be okay in this game. 😆

 

Easy. Akron is deeper, more athletic, will create full court havoc defensively, and can score at will in a multitude of ways. Here are the stats and results from each of Akron & Miami's latest DI game...

 

Akron vs. EMU

55% FG

17% 3P

7 Steals

22 Assists

8 Turnovers

93 points in a 21 point win

 

Miami vs. BG

55% FG

48% 3P (was over 60% in the first half)

6 Steals

16 Assists

16 Turnovers

93 points in a 10 pt win (BG shot 23% from 3P making 5 total 3P in the game; I think they were at 10% 3P% in the 1st half)

 

Without Ipsaro, BG exposed Miami's inability to handle pressure, especially full court pressure. Akron may not be great at 3P defense, but they are fantastic at full court pressure and trapping around the halfcourt line. In addition, I'd be shocked if Miami shot 60% from 3P again in any half vs. us. If they do, hats off. For as good as Miami's offense has been, they've scored under 80 points 3x, under 90 points an additional 4x, and a 5th game would've been under 90 if it wasn't for OT. Akron's quantities with the same thresholds: 1 game under 80 (79 @ Purdue), an additional 2 games under 90 (85 vs. JMU and 88 @ Tulane). Let's also keep in mind Miami's performances have come against one of the weakest OOC schedules in the country. 

 

The only way we aren't in this game is if there's a lid on Akron's basket and Miami shoots 50%+ from 3P. 

[NWAkron]

At Akron, Groce has won @ Kent, Athens, and Oxford.  He's won MAC tournaments over unranked MAC teams.  He didn't upset Buffalo during their golden age.  His signature win is probably the 2022 MAC tournament win over Toledo in the semis.  Beating an undefeated Miami who has some poll #s at Oxford will be a tall order for Groce.

[Let'sGoZips94]

Akron is the #2 scoring offense in the country, behind only Georgia.

 

Miami is #7.

[kreed5120]

3 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

We didn't watch the same games then. Not sure how putting up 94 and 100 respectively in those losses is "pissing down our legs." And don't give me the "Well we gave up 97 and 115 pts in those games," counterargument because both opponents simply had insane shooting performances. Akron is not defensively worse than the majority of teams Yale & Murray State have played, yet neither team has duplicated the shooting performance they each had vs. Akron. Could the defense have been better? Of course. Did we pee down our leg in those games? No. Pissing down our leg would've been shooting 15% from 3, putting up 65 pts, and losing by 30.

 

Did you pay $20 to watch the Murray State game? 

 

They had insane shooting performances because in large part we allowed them high percentage opportunities. In basketball you want to limit uncontested 3s and 2s at that basket. We did neither of those. Yale and Murray St. capitalized as great offenses do.

 

Both offense and defense matter in basketball. You seem to only look at the offensive numbers and pretend defense doesn't matter. I'm sure if you tried talking this nonsense to Groce he would very much disagree about the level of our defensive play in those games. That can be seen by how he changed the lineup after the Murray St. in an effort to sacrifice some offense for better defensive play.

 

At the end of the day we played as good as we reasonably could offensively against Yale and Murray St. but it wasn't enough as we had too many breakdowns defensively. If we had a hand in their face when they were shooting those 3s they wouldn't have shot those high percentages.

Edited 4 hours ago by kreed5120

[kreed5120]

I would actually like to see us pressure the ball less this game. Trapping and then being late to rotate has been what has led to those easy baskets where someone cuts to the basket or is in the weak corner for an open 3. 

 

We are the more athletic team. I feel if we force them to beat us 1 on 1 they will struggle. Their recipe to beat is by shooting 40%+ from 3 while limiting turnovers. Let's instead focus on running them off the 3-pt line and have to settle for contested 2s.

Edited 5 hours ago by kreed5120

[Zips1991]

Anyone heard how long Barre will be out? I saw him with a cast on his wrist the last couple of games.

[Ham]

It's hard to put a hand in their face when they are shooting 20 for 20 FT's!

[kreed5120]

Just now, Ham said:

It's hard to put a hand in their face when they are shooting 20 for 20 FT's!

A chunk of those FTs were in the last minute when we had to foul. If we played better defensively in the first 39 minutes it wouldn't have mattered if they went ~15/15 or whatever from the line. We would have won comfortably given the way we played offensively

[HoopsFan03]

16 minutes ago, Zips1991 said:

Anyone heard how long Barre will be out? I saw him with a cast on his wrist the last couple of games.

I asked him at the Concord game and he had an appointment the next day. He had a walking boot the game before. 

[Zips1991]

Just now, HoopsFan03 said:

I asked him at the Concord game and he had an appointment the next day. He had a walking boot the game before. 

Thanks for the update. Two injuries at once is no fun at all.

[MDZip]

Kenpom has the Zips at 57 and Miami at 107. Tomorrow should be interesting. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

4 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

 

Did you pay $20 to watch the Murray State game? 

 

They had insane shooting performances because in large part we allowed them high percentage opportunities. In basketball you want to limit uncontested 3s and 2s at that basket. We did neither of those. Yale and Murray St. capitalized as great offenses do.

 

Both offense and defense matter in basketball. You seem to only look at the offensive numbers and pretend defense doesn't matter. I'm sure if you tried talking this nonsense to Groce he would very much disagree about the level of our defensive play in those games. That can be seen by how he changed the lineup after the Murray St. in an effort to sacrifice some offense for better defensive play.

 

At the end of the day we played as good as we reasonably could offensively against Yale and Murray St. but it wasn't enough as we had too many breakdowns defensively. If we had a hand in their face when they were shooting those 3s they wouldn't have shot those high percentages.

 

What is a high percentage on a 3P attempt? Miami is the best 3P shooting team in the country at 43.88%. Yale is #2 at 43.07%. That's considered a VERY high percentage based on only 8 teams in the country shooting 40%+ from 3P. Murray State is 47th at a 37.53% clip. Open opportunities might lead to a bump by a few percentage points, but shooting 20% better than your average is an absurd anomaly attributed more to hot shooting than anything else. Yale's 3P performance was probably more indicative of open opportunities (47% that game vs. 43.88% average) than the Murray State game (56% vs. 37.53%). The Yale game was lost in the paint because we didn't have an answer for their inside game and they made darn near every floater and mid range shot imaginable; that's more the byproduct of slanted roster construction (Barre wasn't ramped up yet), not pissing the bed. In addition, I saw both Yale and Murray State make contested shots from all over the court. When a team is on, they're on. 

 

Of course both offense and defense matter in basketball, but the statistics show that offense is superseding defense as the primary cause of a game's result. That's where's a shift across college basketball in recent years to gear towards better offense. We've seen this with Akron teams in the past. Teams that struggle to score will almost always struggle to score. I posted this in one of the other threads, but Houston doesn't have any national championships despite being one of the top defensive teams in recent years. Why? They've struggled to score more than their opponents despite superior defensive efforts. It's no secret Groce wants the defense to be better and he should, but if you zoom out from your 2 game scenario vs. EMU & Concord, Groce has spent the last 2 years reconstructing the roster to be offensively focused and dominant. Sending a message in 2 games we should win going away is great and what good coaches should do, but it doesn't mean Groce doesn't realize offense is still the ultimate key to our success. If defense mattered as much, we wouldn't be playing a more run n gun, chaotic style of offense that is prone to open opportunities and doesn't conserve energy for the defensive side of the ball.

 

We can play the what if game until we're Akron Blue & Gold in the face. It's possible a hand in their face on their made shots lowers their shooting percentage. It's also possible it doesn't. Fact is, both Yale & Murray State had mismatches that put the ball in the hoop at an insanely higher percentage than normal. In no way, shape, or form do I believe Akron pissed down their legs in those games. Hats off to both teams for incredible shooting performances.

 

I expect two things to be true tomorrow. 1) Akron's defense will be improved with the recent messages that have been sent. 2) Miami will either be on or they won't; our defense tomorrow won't have much of an effect on their 3P%. This game will be won or lost based on Akron's scoring abilities and turnovers. 

[Zips1991]

1 hour ago, MDZip said:

Kenpom has the Zips at 57 and Miami at 107. Tomorrow should be interesting. 

Zips are favored by 2.5 points according to DraftKings. O/U is 177.5