Recruiting Service "Stars" - Do they matter?

[94zipgrad]

20 minutes ago, a-zip said:

 

TJ Banks becomes the highest rated recruit at UA - EVER!  .8816  

UA All Time Commits

3 recent bust at RB stood out in top of list, why those things don’t mean much but I am excited about him just based on him being a #2 at WVU & you can see in film he has true TE size & athleticism & what looks like good speed & he seems to like to run people over as well

 

With that said though you still never know 

[a-zip]

7 hours ago, LoyalZIP said:

That list of “all-time commits” is absolutely laughable. I follow this program religiously and can only recall a handful of players at the top ever doing anything significant, with Deryn Bowser probably being just about the only one to live up to expectation. 

The point of my comment is that the bar is being raised.  It appears the players we are targeting and picking up are much higher rated than what we have been able to sign in the past - I view this as a positive.  

 

If you get one 3 star player every 3-4 years, the chances of them failing are pretty high, especially with bad coaching.  

A 5 star QB is not going to live up to his potential throwing to 1 star receivers and 1 star OCs.

A 5 star QB is not going to live up to his potential behind a bunch of 1 star OL.

 

I guarantee if you look at the recruiting ratings in college and the MAC there is a correlation to top recruiting ratings and championships.  

[LoyalZIP]

53 minutes ago, a-zip said:

The point of my comment is that the bar is being raised.  It appears the players we are targeting and picking up are much higher rated than what we have been able to sign in the past - I view this as a positive.  

 

If you get one 3 star player every 3-4 years, the chances of them failing are pretty high, especially with bad coaching.  

A 5 star QB is not going to live up to his potential throwing to 1 star receivers and 1 star OCs.

A 5 star QB is not going to live up to his potential behind a bunch of 1 star OL.

 

I guarantee if you look at the recruiting ratings in college and the MAC there is a correlation to top recruiting ratings and championships.  

Absolutely. I didn’t mean for my comment to come across as anything other than I just think it’s a funny list of names, that’s all. I’m very impressed so far and I’m hoping and expecting these guys to work out well. 

[Zipmeister]

2 hours ago, LoyalZIP said:

Absolutely. I didn’t mean for my comment to come across as anything other than I just think it’s a funny list of names, that’s all. I’m very impressed so far and I’m hoping and expecting these guys to work out well. 

 

You guys better watch out; you are going to bring the "stars don't matter" folks out of the wood work with all kinds of exceptions to the rule.

An interesting survey, just to gauge the feeling of the zips nation room, would call for a simple yes/no answer to the question "in college football are stars and talent positively related?" My guess would be "yes" will win.

[a-zip]

13 minutes ago, Zipmeister said:

 

You guys better watch out; you are going to bring the "stars don't matter" folks out of the wood work with all kinds of exceptions to the rule.

An interesting survey, just to gauge the feeling of the zips nation room, would call for a simple yes/no answer to the question "in college football are stars and talent positively related?" My guess would be "yes" will win.

No kidding.  Who is playing for the National Championship?  And who has had the best recruiting in the last 3 years? 🎤

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by a-zip
spelling

[LoyalZIP]

9 minutes ago, Zipmeister said:

 

You guys better watch out; you are going to bring the "stars don't matter" folks out of the wood work with all kinds of exceptions to the rule.

An interesting survey, just to gauge the feeling of the zips nation room, would call for a simple yes/no answer to the question "in college football are stars and talent positively related?" My guess would be "yes" will win.

 

I understand what the STARZ DON'T MATTER folks are trying to say, we all see Jatavis Brown as one of the best Zips of all time after all. But the idea of loading up a roster with STARZ is more of a depth thing, as opposed to loading up a roster with whatever the hell the last coaching staff considered to be talent. 

 

So, Stars Don't Matter*********

 

*********-yeah they kinda do  (get it, because stars 😉  )

[bigjim]

I thank you guys for your posts regarding the importance of recruiting Stars.  I have been beaten up on Zips Nation for years for saying that Stars matter.  There will be a post showing 5 players over a 15 year period in which Stars do not correlate to success.  Stars are not 100% perfect, but the teams with the most Star players typically win.  It is mostly about talent.  When talent is close to equal, then coaching matters.  I went back and did a quick comparison (not 100% accurate) of the last 5 years of recruits of all of the teams that the Zips played this year.  The Zips had fewer Stars of most of the teams, except Bryant, and BGSU was close.  Who did we beat?  The bottom line is that talent (Stars) wins.  It looks like JoeMo is going after talent.  That pursuit will quickly result in Wins.

In Joe We Trust!!!

[Dr Z]

1 hour ago, LoyalZIP said:

I understand what the STARZ DON'T MATTER folks

I wouldn't categorize myself as a "stars don't matter" fan, more like "as an Akron fan, I don't care about stars." I remember attending a Lee Owens presser, where he was telling us how highly rated Thomas Plummer was. I can't remember how many stars he had, more than Chase Blackburn that same year. After this happened over, and over, and over again in Akron classes, I stopped paying attention to stars. I'll trust that coach Moorhead knows the best type of player that can win at Akron, regardless of stars. 

[Blue & Gold]

I think I remember that Thomas Plummer was the top rated RB coming out of Canada.

[330Zip]

Let's end this convo on stars vs. no stars. I think we can all agree the more highly ranked players you get the more likely that will equal success. Also, as a MAC school you are going to have to find hidden gems (no star players) here and there to continue that success. The best teams year in and year out in our conference do both. 

 

There are obvious times when higher star players bust but the probability will be less that they're not a serviceable player. You cannot hope to have a full recruiting class full of low rated recruits and hope that they're all hidden gems. You'll find a few but the rest of the roster will more than likely be outmatched most games. We've all seen that first hand these past few years. We have some really good talented hidden gems surrounded by a lot of average to below average players.

 

Now let's all continue to support this new staff and football team because there is a lot to be excited about. We'll be getting a lot of news next couple weeks on incoming players and I know I am extremely pumped to see us fill out this roster. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by 330Zip

[Zipmeister]

When looking for low-stars diamonds in the rough one is more likely to discover cubic zirconium.

[Captain Kangaroo]

This thread is dedicated to recruiting service "stars." It was created because this topic historically diverts interesting discussions within other threads.

 

In this case I think all members would like to see the 2022 Zips Recruit Commitment Thread exclusive to player announcements and links + member comments regarding their bios. 

[kreed5120]

I feel offer lists matter more than stars. If there are 5 other MAC schools offering the same player as us and we land him, I'm going to feel better about that than if we landed a 3* that only had a couple FCS offers and no FBS ones.

[94zipgrad]

4 hours ago, a-zip said:

No kidding.  Who is playing for the National Championship?  And who has had the best recruiting in the last 3 years? 🎤

 

Lol, i didn’t start this does stars matter discussion & I didn’t mean start a backlash either.

Stars at that upper level is critical as those high level players have been to the shoe companies camps and have good film and being promoted 

Not every kid goes to shoe camps and get the 40’s, height weight in the system.  When they start getting recruited or make all state they will slap a 2 star or 3 star on the kid based on Hudl film.  A lot of really good college football players are kids who have been busting their butts trying to play college basketball.  A lot of lineman are 6-6 guys that dominate basketball & find out if you can’t dribble, shoot 3’s & jump out of the building your career is over with colleges giving 3 scholarships a year for basketball & 25 for football.  I know of a few local kids that this happened to and went on to Michigan, Michigan State & Pitt that had bball dreams until late in high school.

 

My point until we raise are game to higher levels we need to find some diamonds.  It looks like based on JoeMo’s experience and connections he has been able to raise it but you always have some risk with portal players as for whatever reason it didn’t work out where they where if there coming to Akron, hopefully it’s just they overreached and they just want to play

 

I apologize as I was certainly not trying to question your comment on rankings but more that I was excited he was a #2 TE at a big time program at WVU, that he had the measurable’s your looking for in a TE and had some good college film.  To me that translates to me more than stars

[a-zip]

I was just excited to see the signing and commented that he was highly rated.  I am simply pleased with the initial returns, didn't intend to get in to a "stars" debate.

[RowdyZip]

Stars kind of matter, but once you get past the top 100-150 recruits, it's really a crapshoot.  Below are our top 9 all-time recruits per Scout/247.  None were stars in the MAC.

 

Mark Jackson (LB):  Never played in Akron uniform (that I can find)

Deryn Bowser (WR):  Above average WR JUCO transfer. 85 receptions for 1,092 yards in 18 games over two seasons.

Erick Howard (RB):  Never played in Akron uniform (I think he's in prison for burglary?)

Paul Simkovich (OL):  Serviceable OL, played in 19 career games for Akron

Patrick Nicely (QB):  Below average QB.  I believe transferred down for his Sr year?  49.8 career completion percentage, 18 TDs/ 21 INTs in 30 games.

Corey Thomas (LB):  Brighter spot on defense this past year, played all 12 games. 29 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack

Peter Hayes-Patrick (RB):  RB with a handful of carries during his freshman year.  Doesn't appear to be playing football anymore.

Keith Sconiers (WR):  114 catches for 1366 yards and 6 TDs in 43 career games.

Keyondre White (RB):  Played 7 games at Akron, 23 carries for  81 yards and 1 TD.

[blueandgold]

11 minutes ago, RowdyZip said:

Stars kind of matter, but once you get past the top 100-150 recruits, it's really a crapshoot.  Below are our top 9 all-time recruits per Scout/247.  None were stars in the MAC.

 

Mark Jackson (LB):  Never played in Akron uniform (that I can find)

Deryn Bowser (WR):  Above average WR JUCO transfer. 85 receptions for 1,092 yards in 18 games over two seasons.

Erick Howard (RB):  Never played in Akron uniform (I think he's in prison for burglary?)

Paul Simkovich (OL):  Serviceable OL, played in 19 career games for Akron

Patrick Nicely (QB):  Below average QB.  I believe transferred down for his Sr year?  49.8 career completion percentage, 18 TDs/ 21 INTs in 30 games.

Corey Thomas (LB):  Brighter spot on defense this past year, played all 12 games. 29 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack

Peter Hayes-Patrick (RB):  RB with a handful of carries during his freshman year.  Doesn't appear to be playing football anymore.

Keith Sconiers (WR):  114 catches for 1366 yards and 6 TDs in 43 career games.

Keyondre White (RB):  Played 7 games at Akron, 23 carries for  81 yards and 1 TD.

Deryn Bowser was, however he was only here his Freshman year.

[akzipper]

Honestly I care more about which schools are offering a guy. If I see a recruit has multiple offers from BigTen, ACC or even SEC schools, I'd assume he's a good player. Regardless of if he has 1 star or 5. If someone has offers from all MAC, CUSA or FCS schools it's definitely little less exciting. Not that he won't be a great player. Just need to have lower expectations. 

Edited January 6, 2022 by akzipper

[RowdyZip]

11 minutes ago, blueandgold said:

Deryn Bowser was, however he was only here his Freshman year.

He was a JUCO guy, so he was here his Jr and Sr seasons, lost half his Sr year to injury I believe.  I also think i remember him making a spectacular catch in a Wagon Wheel at Kent to either win the game or give us the lead.  13 years ago is a while...

[GP1]

6 minutes ago, akzipper said:

Honestly I care more about which schools are offering a guy. If I see a recruit has multiple offers from BigTen, ACC or even SEC schools, I'd assume he's a good player. Regardless of if he has 1 star or 5. If someone has offers from all MAC, CUSA or FCS schools it's definitely little less exciting. Not that he won't be a great player. Just need to have lower expectations. 

You are very close. Everyone gets offers now. I care about which schools are offering a guy the closer everyone gets to national signing day.  The reason is a lot of players get dumped by P5 schools the closer one gets to signing day. This is part of the hard work of recruiting for G5 schools and why it's so important to get the right players. As everyone may know, I'm a big fan of Rick Neuheisel because he is a really smart guy who sees college football extremely clearly. He always says a recruit who you get right is what you are supposed to do, it's the ones you get wrong that kill your program. MAC coaches have a tight window of error with recruits so it is extremely important they know and can trust specific high school coaches around their recruiting area with feedback. Mistakes must be limited. Banking on the "star" rating systems can prove horrible for G5 programs. 

 

Recruiting isn't just about how a player interacts with coaches at a school. It's largely about gaining clarity around players from a lot of different sources and figuring out who can help you win. This is waaaaay harder to do at the G5 level than the P5 level. Bowden threw scholarships into the wind and went with anyone they stuck to. It was lazy beyond belief.

[Let'sGoZips94]

20 minutes ago, akzipper said:

Honestly I care more about which schools are offering a guy. If I see a recruit has multiple offers from BigTen, ACC or even SEC schools, I'd assume he's a good player. Regardless of if he has 1 star or 5. If someone has offers from all MAC, CUSA or FCS schools it's definitely little less exciting. Not that he won't be a great player. Just need to have lower expectations. 

 

This. 

 

By the way, regarding stars/all-time recruits for Akron, the majority came during the Reno Ferri's/Moorhead's first stint with Akron, where Ferri delivered the #1 recruiting class in the MAC for 4(?) straight years. 

[gozips19]

52 minutes ago, RowdyZip said:

Stars kind of matter, but once you get past the top 100-150 recruits, it's really a crapshoot.  Below are our top 9 all-time recruits per Scout/247.  None were stars in the MAC.

 

Mark Jackson (LB):  Never played in Akron uniform (that I can find)

Deryn Bowser (WR):  Above average WR JUCO transfer. 85 receptions for 1,092 yards in 18 games over two seasons.

Erick Howard (RB):  Never played in Akron uniform (I think he's in prison for burglary?)

Paul Simkovich (OL):  Serviceable OL, played in 19 career games for Akron

Patrick Nicely (QB):  Below average QB.  I believe transferred down for his Sr year?  49.8 career completion percentage, 18 TDs/ 21 INTs in 30 games.

Corey Thomas (LB):  Brighter spot on defense this past year, played all 12 games. 29 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 sack

Peter Hayes-Patrick (RB):  RB with a handful of carries during his freshman year.  Doesn't appear to be playing football anymore.

Keith Sconiers (WR):  114 catches for 1366 yards and 6 TDs in 43 career games.

Keyondre White (RB):  Played 7 games at Akron, 23 carries for  81 yards and 1 TD.

Jackson was a Center not a LB. Went to Illinois but I'm not sure if he played. 

[RowdyZip]

1 hour ago, gozips19 said:

Jackson was a Center not a LB. Went to Illinois but I'm not sure if he played. 

You'd have thought that 6'6" 301 would've clued me in that he wasn't a linebacker.

[TheZipCat]

I think it's pretty obvious that stars matter. The predictive power of Stars vs No-Stars is obviously seen in some of the posts above of the top "stars" teams. However the individual categories of 5-Stars vs. 3-Stars probably have less predictive power overall. Players probably don't live up to their Star-Rating at similar % across all the categories, and lower the Star-categories the more likely they are to outperform their ranking (because 5-stars can only go "down" in perception, and 1-stars can only go "up" in perception). Wasn't Tra'von Chapman a 4-star recruit that transferred here? 

When WMU was the top of the MAC it had the highest Star rated recruiting classes for a couple of years, if memory serves me correct. Pulling in a few 3-star recruits more than most other MAC programs. It DEFINITELY matters.

[bigjim]

4 hours ago, 94zipgrad said:

 

Are we returning to the Bowden and Arth eras of recruiting players with Zero stars and zero other offers?  We just went through an impressive stretch of competing with other programs for players, and now it seems to have stopped.