Way-Too-Early MAC Predictions: 2023-2024

[LoyalZIP]

Now that a D1 champion has been crowned, many reporters, bloggers, etc. are throwing together some way-too-early rankings to keep the conversation going a little longer before the long, warm summer offseason for college basketball begins. I like the idea, get people talking. And I like keeping the conversation of Zips basketball alive as long as possible before fully shifting my focus over to football. So, with many many months before any rosters are officially set, here is what I think the MAC will look like in 2023-2024. There's still a lot of movement with rosters, but I still feel that I, along with plenty of other regular posters, can already put together some decent hypotheses as to how this will all shake out.

 

1. Akron Zips: A homerific start to this post, I know. The MAC is losing a ton of its talent at the top, and considering how things have begun to shape up for next season , I feel this is a no-brainer. I'm normally cautious about giving the Zips too much credit for fear of getting my hopes up, but Akron currently has the most put-together roster in the league and I have no doubt that Groce is the best coach in the league. This could be a special year, I'm hoping the gel together a lot earlier in the season than Team 122 (2022-2023) did. I see the best big in the league, a dangerous stretch 4 that really came on at the end of the season, tremendously experienced and elite defensive guards in Tribble & Thornton, and young, promising PGs in Scott & Tavari. Throw in another offseason of development for Nate Johnson and a healthy Mikal Dawson, and the Zips may have something cookin'...

 

2. Ohio Bobcats: The Jeff Boals era has been fascinating, to say the least. He did wonderfully with Saul Phillips' players and then looked to have the next great guard in Mark Sears before he allegedly lied to Boals and boalted for Bama. Dwight Wilson departs, leaving a decent sized hole in their overall talent. With that said, I think the top 2 are pretty comfortably set--at least as of April 4. Jaylin Hunter came on as a stud of a guard, absolutely torching the Zips down in Athens. AJ Brown and Elmore James could be some of the great MAC guards of the future if they wind up sticking around for a while. If Boals can work the portal well, I expect the Kittens to be back in the MAC title conversation.

 

3. Kent State Golden Flashes: This is where things start to get a little muddy. The defending champs lose a tremendous amount of production from Carry, Jacobs, and Thomas. More importantly, they lose the two most important players that run the offense, and probably their two best defenders. They do return Santiago, Payton, and Sullinger along with some nice young guys in Julius Rollins and Delrecco Gillespie--assuming they don't go portaling. Pinky is a great MAC recruiter, though, which is why I'd put them up here instead of some of the other more promising teams. 

 

4. Ball State Cardinals: The Michael Lewis era got off to a strong start, but sputtered out toward the end, as they were banged up and wound up losing to a few great teams to end the year. Payton Sparks is now a Hoosier, and familiar face, albeit not a big contributor, Luke Bumbalough is gone. Jalen Windham had a huge game at Akron, but was fairly average outside of that game. He's gone as well. Lewis has kept around a solid group of guards with Jaylin Sellers, Jarron Coleman, possibly Demarius Jacobs depending on eligibility, and he's added JUCO transfer Davion Bailey so far. A sophomore slump could be in the cards for Lewis, but that program had some energy it had been lacking for decades. They beat Toledo, Akron, and Kent in the regular season--no small feat.

 

5. Toledo Rockets: Ohhh poor Tod Kowalczyk. I may have them a little too low on this ranking, but losing Millner and Shumate was already a big blow, then you throw the loss of Dennis on top of that, and I think that really knocks them down a few notches on the ladder. Dante Maddox is still around, as well as Tyler Cochran and a few other nice pieces, but they lack a true leader that Dennis and Rollins have provided the last couple of years. Sonny Wilson, an incoming Fr. from the Detroit area, is a very highly touted recruit and could make this a quicker rebound than expected. For me, though, too many question marks going forward for now.

 

6. Northern Illinois Huskies: To be quite honest, I probably could have stopped after 5, because the rest of the league is shaping up to be a total crap shoot. A couple new coaches, a few teams gutted by the portal. Lots and lots of question marks. With that said, I think Rashon Burno is doing a fine job at NIU, all things considered. That was already a hard enough job before the days of the portal. They lose Thornton and a few other decent contributors, but as of April 4, they bring back enough pieces where I think they could be in okay shape. David Coit, Zarique Nutter, and Keshawn Williams--if they all return--make up a decent core of guards. They did beat Kent last year, and won enough to make it into the tournament. That isn't saying much, but after their first week of MAC play, I would have picked them to finish in the bottom 2 of the league. 

 

7. Miami RedHawks: I see Travis Steele as more of a fit to return Miami to relevance than either of the last two clowns on that bench. How he got that program to Cleveland this year is above my comprehension. Morgan Safford and Ryan Mabrey are solid pieces that return. Outside of that, anyone's best guess. I'm moreso banking on my belief in Steele than anything else putting them here. We'll see what he can do. Man, this league is going to be baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.

 

8. Western Michigan Broncos: Stephens made quite the ambitious move to leave a comfy spot at Michigan State to coach men's basketball at a directional Michigan. And I feel they underachieved in his first season. Lamar Norman is far too good a basketball player for them to have the level of success they did. But I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. If B. Artis White is back and healthy, they could be a dark horse once again. JaVaughn Hanna, Seth Hubbard, and Jefferson Monengro made up a decent freshman class. Titus Wright may be hanging around too. They could be a few pieces away from getting somewhere. Maybe. 

 

9. Eastern Michigan Eagles: I expect Acuff and Farrakhan to return. As for Mr. Bates, it's been radio silence on what he's doing. I thought by now he would have declared for something other than returning to be miserable in Ypsi again. Anyway, I don't have high hopes even if that core does remain intact. I would be more bullish on them if Bates left, to be honest. I think that whole situation that follows him around is a disaster for the college level. I should have so much more to say for a roster with this amount of talent, but 2022-2023 was so awful, I really don't know what more to say. This is a program that should make it to Cleveland. If they don't, Heath must be fired. 

 

10. Bowling Green Falcons: I love the hire their new AD made. Simon is a great coach that put Southern Utah on the map, whether other MAC fans are aware of that or not. They were a good program in a good league, and rallied from 23-down to beat Aziz Bandaogo's Utah Valley Wolverines in the conference tournament. With that said, this roster is a barren wasteland. I don't know for sure who is returning as of right now. Samari Curtis, if he's back, is a decent little piece to build around. BG basketball has a substantive endowment that saves if from the rest of the school's financial struggles. Perhaps that propels them a little higher. I am eager to see what Simon does here.

 

11. Buffalo Bulls: How the mighty have fallen. Groce killed Buffalo in that he ended any hope they had of making a run to save Whitesell's rear end a couple years in a row. They took a shot at getting rid of him after a pretty awful year, and they had a whale of a time finding a replacement. With that said, George Halcovage could be a surprise splash hire. But much like BGSU, the cupboard is bare. If there is even a cupboard there at all. Most of their players from a poorly constructed roster have gone into the portal. I would be surprised if it didn't take UB at least a couple of season to claw their way back into the top half of the league, even as the league is not deep anymore.

 

12. Central Michigan Chippewas: Barbee did a great job in 2021-2022, getting that group to Cleveland and a bucket away from the semifinals. However, he did it mostly with old grad transfers. Fools gold, if you will. I was not surprised to see them take a step back this past season, but I was surprised to see them take a giant leap backward. An already flawed roster was hit with the injury bug. Yet somehow they were the only one of Ohio, EMU, Toledo, and CMU to come out on top at Michigan. They lose Bass Zarzuela, Miller, Pavrette, and a few names I've never even heard of. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked if Chris Fowler and Braylon Rayson re-enrolled just so they could transfer out. That's how bad things are in Mt. P. It has become a basketball wasteland, and I would be absolutely floored and embarrassed if this program finds its way to Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in March of 2024. Stranger things have happened, that is for sure, but this is a really bad situation. Barbee came in with a solid resume that included plenty of HC experience. And he came from Calipari's bench. Only to be miserable in northern Michigan. Yikes...

 

What say you, ZN? The ranking is far less important than the general thoughts on how each program is trending as we go into the offseason. I'm sure we'll have plenty of surprises from now until November. Hopefully they're surprises that benefit the Zips. 

 

 

[NWAkron]

Really awesome post, @LoyalZIP  

 

At the moment, I incredibly admire how Groce has kept this team together.  I wonder if it's harder to keep a team together after winning the conference as opposed to coming close?   

 

I think you nailed the top 3 teams. 

 

It's been a little too quiet over in Ravenna, I can only imagine what Pinky and Christian are up to during this "don't recruit" week. 

 

As for Ohio, I didn't realize Wilson was a grad transfer.  That's a big, pun intended, loss for them.

 

Toledo.  Can Groce get them off his regular season back?   I've had my fill of Shumate and Milner that's for sure.  Are we sure they won't be coming back?

 

Miami is the team I think can step all over the garbage bottom 8 and re-assert themselves with Groce's brother as coach.

 

Because the MAC is so bad, the Zips must schedule and WIN some tough out of conference games.  This "Groce has them ready for March" meme is getting tired.  We saw from our friends in Brimfield that a MAC team can schedule tough opponents and play tough in those games.  Groce needs some marquee wins.  Now is the time.

Edited April 5, 2023 by NWAkron

[X got robbed of POY]

I look at next season as sort of "The Last Dance". Obviously Akron/Groce can reload and rebuild rather quickly, but next season we will likely have a starting lineup of 5 seniors and the last season having a player like Enrique Freeman for who knows how long. Not sure how much immediate success this program can have after this senior class departs. 

[LoyalZIP]

My official Fearless Forecast for the 2023-2024 season: This is John Groce's 7th and final season at Akron. If this upcoming team can do what it is fully capable of, they will get back into the Big Dance and hopefully make some noise. But that is a long way to go. As XGRoPOY said above, I'm not sure how much rebuilding of Akron this coaching staff is interested in at this point. I could certainly be wrong, but other than the Butler job opening last April, I haven't really felt at any point that Groce was ready to leave. After this coming season, his oldest will be graduating high school and it wouldn't shock me at all if coach wanted to turn the page and give a bigger job another shot.

 

No reason to think or worry about that now, though. There's some business that needs taken care of. 

[Blue & Gold]

10 hours ago, X got robbed of POY said:

I look at next season as sort of "The Last Dance". Obviously Akron/Groce can reload and rebuild rather quickly, but next season we will likely have a starting lineup of 5 seniors and the last season having a player like Enrique Freeman for who knows how long. Not sure how much immediate success this program can have after this senior class departs. 

 

1 hour ago, LoyalZIP said:

My official Fearless Forecast for the 2023-2024 season: This is John Groce's 7th and final season at Akron. If this upcoming team can do what it is fully capable of, they will get back into the Big Dance and hopefully make some noise. But that is a long way to go. As XGRoPOY said above, I'm not sure how much rebuilding of Akron this coaching staff is interested in at this point. I could certainly be wrong, but other than the Butler job opening last April, I haven't really felt at any point that Groce was ready to leave. After this coming season, his oldest will be graduating high school and it wouldn't shock me at all if coach wanted to turn the page and give a bigger job another shot.

 

No reason to think or worry about that now, though. There's some business that needs taken care of. 

As far as us being upperclassmen-laden next season, and it looking like we'll be gutted after next year, we may just be getting used to the new Transfer Portal Era norm of college basketball. It's tough to take high school seniors and wait 2 years (or possibly never) for them to develop into consistent contributors, all while crossing your fingers they don't transfer out, when you can recruit a known commodity junior who you can plug-in-and-play?

 

After next year's graduating seniors depart we'll still be left with

PG - Tavari, Shammah

W - Shammah, Prather, Nate, Marvin

P - Amani, Darrion, Marvin

 

Plug a couple ready-to-play upperclassmen transfers into that lineup and I still think you've got something.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Blue & Gold

[kreed5120]

1 hour ago, LoyalZIP said:

My official Fearless Forecast for the 2023-2024 season: This is John Groce's 7th and final season at Akron. If this upcoming team can do what it is fully capable of, they will get back into the Big Dance and hopefully make some noise. But that is a long way to go. As XGRoPOY said above, I'm not sure how much rebuilding of Akron this coaching staff is interested in at this point. I could certainly be wrong, but other than the Butler job opening last April, I haven't really felt at any point that Groce was ready to leave. After this coming season, his oldest will be graduating high school and it wouldn't shock me at all if coach wanted to turn the page and give a bigger job another shot.

 

No reason to think or worry about that now, though. There's some business that needs taken care of. 

Without a NCAA tournament win I just don't see it happening. In 6 years he has 1 NCAA tournament appearance and 1 MAC regular season title.

 

For comparison in Dambrot's first 7 years, he went to 2 NCAA tournaments and won 2 MAC regular season titles. If Groce wins the regular season title and wins the MAC tournament to lose in the round of 64 next year, he'd just match what Dambrot achieved in the same timeframe. I'm not saying this to start another Dambrot vs Groce debate. I'm saying this because it would be hard for me to fathom a major program being interested in him when they weren't when Dambrot had a similar type of tenure.

[Let'sGoZips94]

23 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Without a NCAA tournament win I just don't see it happening. In 6 years he has 1 NCAA tournament appearance and 1 MAC regular season title.

 

For comparison in Dambrot's first 7 years, he went to 2 NCAA tournaments and won 2 MAC regular season titles. If Groce wins the regular season title and wins the MAC tournament to lose in the round of 64 next year, he'd just match what Dambrot achieved in the same timeframe. I'm not saying this to start another Dambrot vs Groce debate. I'm saying this because it would be hard for me to fathom a major program being interested in him when they weren't when Dambrot had a similar type of tenure.

 

I thought Dambrot had interest from other programs?

[clarkwgriswold]

28 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Without a NCAA tournament win I just don't see it happening. In 6 years he has 1 NCAA tournament appearance and 1 MAC regular season title.

 

For comparison in Dambrot's first 7 years, he went to 2 NCAA tournaments and won 2 MAC regular season titles. If Groce wins the regular season title and wins the MAC tournament to lose in the round of 64 next year, he'd just match what Dambrot achieved in the same timeframe. I'm not saying this to start another Dambrot vs Groce debate. I'm saying this because it would be hard for me to fathom a major program being interested in him when they weren't when Dambrot had a similar type of tenure.

 

Dambrot had something in his past that took him off of the radars of many schools that may have had interest.  I suspect Groce's tenure at Illinois may have some impact on his attractiveness to other programs.  We've been really lucky to have each of them.

[Captain Kangaroo]

26 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Without a NCAA tournament win I just don't see it happening. In 6 years he has 1 NCAA tournament appearance and 1 MAC regular season title.

 

For comparison in Dambrot's first 7 years, he went to 2 NCAA tournaments and won 2 MAC regular season titles. If Groce wins the regular season title and wins the MAC tournament to lose in the round of 64 next year, he'd just match what Dambrot achieved in the same timeframe. I'm not saying this to start another Dambrot vs Groce debate. I'm saying this because it would be hard for me to fathom a major program being interested in him when they weren't when Dambrot had a similar type of tenure.

Can I start a debate? 😄

 

To completely overlook the team Groce assembled in the COVID cancellation year because the didn’t make the NCAA tournament unfairly skews the coaching success comparison. That team would have lapped the field at Rocket Mortgage, and had the Zips best chance at a tourney win that we may ever see. 

[LoyalZIP]

35 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

Without a NCAA tournament win I just don't see it happening. In 6 years he has 1 NCAA tournament appearance and 1 MAC regular season title.

 

For comparison in Dambrot's first 7 years, he went to 2 NCAA tournaments and won 2 MAC regular season titles. If Groce wins the regular season title and wins the MAC tournament to lose in the round of 64 next year, he'd just match what Dambrot achieved in the same timeframe. I'm not saying this to start another Dambrot vs Groce debate. I'm saying this because it would be hard for me to fathom a major program being interested in him when they weren't when Dambrot had a similar type of tenure.

 

Well, included in the Fearless Forecast is the fact that if they make the Dance, and also make some noise in the Dance, then I would be very surprised to see him return. This isn't necessarily a prediction that I'm making. It's just a hypothetical situation based on where I believe this program will be next year.

 

Anyway, after the 2022 season, schools came calling but ultimately he didn't pursue any of those avenues. That may go differently if they go back to the tournament and once again go 0-fer a second time around. 

[LoyalZIP]

Just now, Captain Kangaroo said:

Can I start a debate? 😄

 

To completely overlook the team Groce assembled in the COVID cancellation year because the didn’t make the NCAA tournament unfairly skews the coaching success comparison. That team would have lapped the field at Rocket Mortgage, and had the Zips best chance at a tourney win that we may ever see. 

 

I happen to agree. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but that team was significantly better than every other team in the league. They got blown out by BG in the 2nd to last week of the season, but that was one of those games where the other team has a good night and the Zips had their worst game of the entire season. In Cleveland, Akron's toughest test probably would have been OU in the quarterfinals. I get called out quite a bit more on here than I should for waxing poetic about that team, the usual rebuttal being that they could have been bounced by the Kittens. That is absolutely true. But I can't say it enough--losing the ability to watch that team compete in the postseason is probably the most painful reality in my life as a fan of the Zips. That is worse than the Penno shot, sitting through VCU, the Blake Hamilton shot, any football embarrassment, Kent hoisting the trophy in 2017. LCJ, X-Will, Cheese, Banks, and Riak never got to play in the MAC tournament as the favorite in front of a giant crowd of Zips fans. UGH. 

[NWAkron]

Just now, LoyalZIP said:

 

I happen to agree. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but that team was significantly better than every other team in the league. They got blown out by BG in the 2nd to last week of the season, but that was one of those games where the other team has a good night and the Zips had their worst game of the entire season. In Cleveland, Akron's toughest test probably would have been OU in the quarterfinals. I get called out quite a bit more on here than I should for waxing poetic about that team, the usual rebuttal being that they could have been bounced by the Kittens. That is absolutely true. But I can't say it enough--losing the ability to watch that team compete in the postseason is probably the most painful reality in my life as a fan of the Zips. That is worse than the Penno shot, sitting through VCU, the Blake Hamilton shot, any football embarrassment, Kent hoisting the trophy in 2017. LCJ, X-Will, Cheese, Banks, and Riak never got to play in the MAC tournament as the favorite in front of a giant crowd of Zips fans. UGH. 

Xanax can be a friend.

[kreed5120]

2 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

I thought Dambrot had interest from other programs?

I think there were some for jobs that were lateral moves or marginal upgrades. I just can't imagine Groce leaving to go coach some place like Illinois State. 

 

To get an offer from another Big 10 or Big East type school I'd think he'd need a tournament win.

[kreed5120]

2 hours ago, clarkwgriswold said:

 

Dambrot had something in his past that took him off of the radars of many schools that may have had interest.  I suspect Groce's tenure at Illinois may have some impact on his attractiveness to other programs.  We've been really lucky to have each of them.

Indeed we have.

[LoyalZIP]

 

 

[NWAkron]

1 hour ago, LoyalZIP said:

 

 

Well, with this big news and @LoyalZIP prediction that Groce is on his way out after next year, what will become of MAC basketball, especially if the Zips become equivalent of a directional Michigan school?

[clarkwgriswold]

2 hours ago, LoyalZIP said:

 

 

 

The Crash Davis of the MAC gets another extension.  Talk about a school bidding against itself.

[1981 grad]

4 hours ago, LoyalZIP said:

 

I happen to agree. Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but that team was significantly better than every other team in the league. They got blown out by BG in the 2nd to last week of the season, but that was one of those games where the other team has a good night and the Zips had their worst game of the entire season. In Cleveland, Akron's toughest test probably would have been OU in the quarterfinals. I get called out quite a bit more on here than I should for waxing poetic about that team, the usual rebuttal being that they could have been bounced by the Kittens. That is absolutely true. But I can't say it enough--losing the ability to watch that team compete in the postseason is probably the most painful reality in my life as a fan of the Zips. That is worse than the Penno shot, sitting through VCU, the Blake Hamilton shot, any football embarrassment, Kent hoisting the trophy in 2017. LCJ, X-Will, Cheese, Banks, and Riak never got to play in the MAC tournament as the favorite in front of a giant crowd of Zips fans. UGH. 

I still remember listening to the radio and they called off the tournament.  I recall all of the above and my favorite is somebody on this board posted some computer generated formula that we had a 97% chance of beating UCLA with a few minutes left in the game.  I knew we would lose as soon as I saw that post.  

[LZIp]

Don’t like any talk of Groce leaving, for whatever reason. After the next season might look like a “rebuild” and it might not. Nobody knows the type of leap Tavari will make, Baker is pretty highly touted. Dawson would technically have another year of eligibility with a medical redshirt. Not to mention the ability to reload with the transfer portal.

 

positivity guys!

[72 Roo]

Agreed. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. The sky is not falling and we have a lot to offer Groce. Will he go. Yes, I believe so. But I am not sure it will be after next season so why worry about what we can't control. Rather let's make this program a better version of what it is now. Make it damn hard for him to leave. When he does we will thank him for all he has done and welcome in a very good coach to replace him. Good coaches will want to be here.

[clarkwgriswold]

I don't think a guy like Groce ever anticipates a rebuild because they always confidence in their ability to recruit quality players and coach them up.   If he leaves to another program it will be because of his success here and I'd prefer that to the type of consistent mediocrity that allows many coaches to overstay their welcome. 

[Zipmeister]

Hoping to participate in the way-2-early prediction discussion without putting much thought into it I came up with the list enumerated below.

The process: I jotted the team names on separate pieces paper then did a random draw. The Zips actually were drawn 8th, but they were elevated to the number 1 spot to avoid upsetting any ZipsNation members.

So here is my projected order of finish for next season.........

ZIPS

BUGS

SWEATERS

TOL

CMU

WMU

EMU

OH

NI

BUF

KSU

BALL

[LoyalZIP]

Tod K is in the mix at Utah State and has interviewed. That would be quite the move. That program has become one of the better mid-majors known for its high-powered offense. Not so different from Toledo after all. Could be a KD-like move in trying to get to a multi-bid league. 

[Captain Kangaroo]

3 minutes ago, LoyalZIP said:

Could be a KD-like move in trying to get to a multi-bid league. 

I counted one A-10 team in the tourney this year? Even 25-8 Fordham, and 22-win Dayton were passed-over by the Big Dance committee. 

 

When Groce considers departing the Rubber City one day, how much weight will be placed on the fact that it's easier to win the MAC than is it to finish 3rd or 4th in many larger conferences? $600k+ per season, and a 30%+ chance to go dancing at season's end (he's perennially playing on Friday's and/or Saturday's in the MAC Tourney every year)? That's a pretty good gig.

 

 

[Captain Kangaroo]

20 minutes ago, LoyalZIP said:

Tod K is in the mix at Utah State and has interviewed. That would be quite the move. That program has become one of the better mid-majors known for its high-powered offense. Not so different from Toledo after all. Could be a KD-like move in trying to get to a multi-bid league. 

I wonder if he could become a "Mitch Cronin" and blossom with a bigger conference and budget?