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Predict the 2024 Win/Loss Record


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1 minute ago, egregiousbob said:

The best back in the MAC? You sound like Bud Wentz. At least 8 other backs had better yards-per-carry stats. Peny Boone of Toledo averaged 7.2 yards per carry vs. Lingard at 4.1 or so.

 

 

 

Citing a statistic that requires additional talent to make happen - egregious. Whose OLine was better - Toledo or Akron? There's a very solid chance Lingard was legitimately the best back in the MAC. People's eyes could tell you that. The dude had the size and speed to compete with the best of them, but lacked opportunity and talent around him to really reach his potential. 

 

Go crawl back in your hole and eat a Snickers.

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I'll take Lingard over any MAC runner. He was behind a poor line and still proved to be dangerous any time he touched the ball. Thank you for putting me in the same opinion as Bud Went. He dreams big and then produces. Akron needs more of him.

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4-8, I guess. Normally I pick us to win a random road game every year, so I think that will be OU. Not very confident in that though. I have been too confident the last couple of seasons so I am just going to expect us to go 3-9, any worse than that is unacceptable. 

 

L  @Ohio State

L  @Rutgers 

W vs. Colgate 

L   @ South Carolina 

W @ Ohio 

L vs.Bowling Green

L   @ Western Michigan 

L vs. Eastern Michigan

W vs. Buffalo

L @ Northern Illinois

W @ Kent State 

L   vs Toledo

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On 8/19/2024 at 4:39 PM, LZIp said:

What progress would you have been looking for to be more positive? General consensus is that at minimum, we have a better QB than last year, and that alone would've probably would've let to multiple more wins. Biggest loss might've been Lingard, but I think we have a solid replacement and Lingard was gross underutilized as is. Plus, Joe is back calling the plays.

Just general competence.  Any level of competence would be nice.  Haven't had that yet under Joe.

 

I mean, "better QB" is nice...but he's also a twice transferred QB who's 2-6 in games that he played substantial snaps.  That's the number of wins I expect this year, so...

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7 hours ago, exit322 said:

Just general competence.  Any level of competence would be nice.  Haven't had that yet under Joe.

 

I mean, "better QB" is nice...but he's also a twice transferred QB who's 2-6 in games that he played substantial snaps.  That's the number of wins I expect this year, so...

Not sure what is meant by “general competence.” Under Mooorhead the Zips have played 13 one score games in two seasons. To my knowledge, that’s more than any other FBS program. Unfortunately, the wins have been lacking, but the team has been competitive (excluding a handful of P5/4 games). 
 

Akron has more All-Conference players than any other MAC program from the 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes combined - Moorhead’s only recruiting classes that have players that have played a game. 

 

Moorhead has assembled consecutive top 3 recruiting classes in the MAC according to Rivals (2023 & 2024).

 

The team has improved in nearly every statistical area from the 2021 season.

 

Yes there are things can that can be called out, especially last season. For example, why wasn’t Lingard given more touches? Odd playcalling during stretches of games. Mishandling of the kickers. Etc. Outside of that, I’m not sure what more Moorhead could’ve done to this point.

 

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1 hour ago, catdaddyp said:

Moorhead has assembled consecutive top 3 recruiting classes in the MAC according to Rivals (2023 & 2024).

 

Let's let facts be facts.  Rivals recruiting rankings: 2023 6th, 2024 6th.

 

247Sports rankings: 2023 11th, 2024 10th

 

I have not been overly impressed thus far. He seems low energy to me.

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, egregiousbob said:

 

Let's let facts be facts.  Rivals recruiting rankings: 2023 6th, 2024 6th.

 

247Sports rankings: 2023 11th, 2024 10th

 

I have not been overly impressed thus far. He seems low energy to me.

I did post facts. Check Rivals comprehensive recruiting rankings. I linked to assist with the fact checking. For whatever reason, a few teams not in the MAC are listed for 2024 when Rivals did the system revamp. Also, I’ve posted all MAC recruiting under the recruiting section of the forum. 

 

247 is missing a large amount of MAC commitments. 

 

I’m not going to post all the stat improvements, as I’ve done that before, but feel free to search the other threads to find them.

 

 

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Recruit ranks reflect their offer list.  Many diamonds in the ruff are overlooked.  Injuries could push a recruit off a big time offer.  Out side of P4/5, recruit rank is suspect.  Some players need more time to mature.  When one looks at the turn over though out the MAC, who is to know the players who were overlooked, slowed by injuries, or late bloomers.  QB play could make or break our season.  I like to think positive.   OOC:  1-3. MAC:  5-3.  (Positive only goes so far; one must be a bit realistic.)

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9 minutes ago, Ham said:

Recruit ranks reflect their offer list.  Many diamonds in the ruff are overlooked.  Injuries could push a recruit off a big time offer.  Out side of P4/5, recruit rank is suspect.  Some players need more time to mature.  When one looks at the turn over though out the MAC, who is to know the players who were overlooked, slowed by injuries, or late bloomers.  QB play could make or break our season.  I like to think positive.   OOC:  1-3. MAC:  5-3.  (Positive only goes so far; one must be a bit realistic.)

Offer lists and what school the player commits to makes a difference in the final rankings. The top recruiting analysts at Rivals believe most G5 commits should be 2 stars. That line of thinking should really be revisited as better players are now committing to G5 schools, as the portal is taking up more of the P4 scholarships. We had several commits get downgraded to a 2 star after they committed to us. To me, that’s foolish as they are still the same player. They didn’t suddenly become a lesser player because they chose not to go P4.
 

Recruits will also get rated based on their Rivals camp performances. Some analysts believe football production is more important (the ones that have actual coaching experience), while other analysts fall in love with measurables - stature, length, 40 time, etc. Recruits may also get ranked if an analyst sees them in one of the summer camps that many colleges hold. In general, to get as close to a fair rating as possible, recruits should attend a camp where analysts will be.

 

Recruiting is definitely an inexact science. If 50% of the class turns out to be significant contributors, it’s usually considered a good class. 
 

100% agree about the QB situation. I hope you’re right and we get to 6 wins.
 

 

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Concern going forward is that much of the grunt work of recruiting is traditionally handled by graduate assistants.  If I'm not mistaken, budget cuts have eliminated GAs this year. Additionally, if enrollment declines or remains flat for 2024-25 (which seems likely), more budget cuts are in the offing.  At some point, you just can't compete by rubbing two sticks together.

 

 

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10 hours ago, catdaddyp said:

Not sure what is meant by “general competence.” Under Mooorhead the Zips have played 13 one score games in two seasons. To my knowledge, that’s more than any other FBS program. Unfortunately, the wins have been lacking, but the team has been competitive (excluding a handful of P5/4 games). 

 

3-10 in one-score games means they're really good at finding ways to lose.  Doesn't feel generally competent to me.

 

I do understand your general optimism with how things are looking down the line.  I don't share it for a second because they're 7-47 in their last five seasons, and Moorhead's win percentage is marginally above Arth's (and exactly the same as Arth's last two seasons).  I do acknowledge that I could be wrong and they really are on their way to being average.

Edited by exit322
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3 hours ago, exit322 said:

3-10 in one-score games means they're really good at finding ways to lose.  Doesn't feel generally competent to me.

 

I do understand your general optimism with how things are looking down the line.  I don't share it for a second because they're 7-47 in their last five seasons, and Moorhead's win percentage is marginally above Arth's (and exactly the same as Arth's last two seasons).  I do acknowledge that I could be wrong and they really are on their way to being average.

Here’s a few reasons why I still believe Moorhead will be successful and the program is in a far better place than the record indicates.

 

3 things are needed for a winning program - Culture, Coaching, and Talent. 

- I can’t speak to the culture at Akron as I’m not in the building or around the team, but the players I’ve spoken to that have committed are excited for the opportunity and speak highly of the program. 

- I believe Moorhead has assembled one of the better staffs in the MAC, despite financial restraints.

- I can certainly vouch for the uptick in recruiting as I cover recruiting part time. It’s also why I correctly predicted most of our All-MAC players to eventually be named All-MAC. I’m definitely not always right, but far more right than wrong. 

 

My timeline on when the turnaround would happen was off. I thought it would happen last season. Little did I know DJI was not fully healthy. I also thought JU would be an adequate backup if called upon after seeing him play well in the spring game and seemingly progressed. That turned out to not be the case. The fact is, it’s hard to win without solid QB play. Add in all the other issues we’ve discussed adnauseam on this forum and it led to a wasted season with many close losses.

 

The roster was in horrendous shape when Moorhead took over. There were a handful of talented players, but little talented depth at most positions. The OL and DL especially needed major upgrades. This year’s class will be just Moorhead’s third. The first class has produced 6 All-Conference players so far. Chances are the 2023 and 2024 classes will be even better. The talent and depth continues to be increased.

 

It’s unfortunate this year’s schedule is so tough. Even if this team is much better (and I think they will be), winning just 5-6 games will likely be a challenge. 

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2 hours ago, catdaddyp said:

 

- I can certainly vouch for the uptick in recruiting as I cover recruiting part time. It’s also why I correctly predicted most of our All-MAC players to eventually be named All-MAC. I’m definitely not always right, but far more right than wrong. 

 

I must gloss over your all MAC predictions. Who do you got for the 2023 and 2024 classes?

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, LZIp said:

I must gloss over your all MAC predictions. Who do you got for the 2023 and 2024 classes?

I’ll often put it in the position previews and usually state which players I think are primed for it after the spring game. I think the most likely candidates this year regardless of class are:


QB - Ben Finley

WR - Alex Adams (2022 1st Team)

WR - Adrian Norton

TE - Jacob Newell

OL - Laurance Seymore

OL - Da’Quan Thomas

DE - CJ Nunnally (2023 1st Team)

LB - Bryan McCoy (2023 3rd Team)

LB - Antavious Fish

NB - Darrian Lewis

S - Paul Lewis

 

That said, we’d probably have to come close to winning the conference to get that many. Jones and Fish were deserving last year, but no way we were going to get them all with the few wins we had. It’s also about time for this offense to feed the RBs more. Even if that’s the case, if we are splitting touches between Simmons and Kellom, I’m not sure either one would have enough stats to make an All-MAC team. I’d also like to say Blanchard, but injuries are a concern. One of the DTs may also make it. Marcus Moore has the highest upside, although Lavea and Kapongo will probably get the most snaps in 2024. 

 

 

2023:

Adrian Norton

Jacob Newell

Laurance Seymore

Jayvin James

Marcus Moore

CJ Nunnally (2023 1st Team)

Kam Cheatom 

 

2024:

Israel Polk

Tristen Graham

Elijah Davis

Ronald Hull

Rich Benenge

Paul Lewis

Elijah Reed

Daymon David

Rodrick Hunter

Edited by catdaddyp
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My expectations are

Fire Everyone:

Win less than 3

Underwhelmed:

Win 3

Happy:

Win 4

Very happy:

Win 5

Throw a parade: 

Win 6😂

 

We will see I’m trying to not get myself too hyped I just want to see a spark before I graduate in spring 25 and something to build on for that 2025 schedule (that I hope remains in tact).

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Since the season is about to sart, I'll start psting some. I have been watching posts throught he summer. Some iteresting predictions on the board. 

First, its difficult to predict later season games until we see how badly physically beat up they are after the South Carolina game. OSU,Rutgers and SC are goung to physically pound them. OSU is going to show no mercy because Ryan Day is coaching for his job. South Carolina is going to be ugly. No chance against an improving Rutgers team.

I wish the great minds in the AD's office would stop sacrificing football players for $$$. So who knows who will be standing on 9-14-24 and 9-28-24.

With that said, too many other variables. Another new QB. Questionable O-line. Run game probably not as good. On defense, it will depend on who does or doesn't get injured. Healthy, it will be above average.

I'm going 4-8 conservatively. I HOPE the wins are Colgate(but they are usually solid),BGSU,either EMU or Buffalo(not both) and hopefully KSU but not comfy witha one either.

With an upset of one of OU, EMU or NIU might get to 5 at best.

Just stop scheduling so many damn sacrifice games. I have no interest in watching the play OSU, Rutgers or SC. It not fair to the players.

That said we will be at the home games with ear plugs in.😄

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