Transfer Portal Watch

[Let'sGoZips94]

10 minutes ago, LoyalZIP said:

 

I can think of some circumstances last year that prevented him from having a great year for Akron basketball, just a couple.

 

As a true freshman, he was a spot starter for the best team in the MAC. Barely scored, but was a rotation player--as a true freshman--on what many consider to be one of the best Akron teams to ever take the floor.

 

As a sophomore, he played far more meaningful minutes on a team that was tasked with replacing one of the best starting lineups the program has ever seen. In 13 more minutes per game, his FG% saw a 6% increase, 3PT% saw an 11% increase, and he scored 131 more points than he did as a freshman. In a short season.

 

As a junior, he led the team in scoring (the team that went 14-6 in MAC play and beat Kent by 20 in the MAC Championship). He averaged 10 more minutes per game than the previous year, bumped his FG% up 2%, bumped his 3PT% up 6%, and missed 37 free throws in 133 trips to the line. He scored 308 more points than the previous season.

 

I'm all for the idea of him not being as good as he once was in the Akron uniform. My guess as to his production will be somewhere between the 21 and 22 seasons. Lots of cooks in the kitchen this year. But calling that one season an outlier is entirely misleading. There is a graph of usage and production that suggests a trend. Had he never left Akron, who knows how good a year he would've had in 22-23. 

 

My main point in this entire business transaction is this. Would you rather bring back Ali to give it another shot with him, or take a shot on a random and increase your risk of another Maishe Dailey, Trimble, Currie, or KJ Walton while you try to land a Xeyrius Williams or even a Xavier Castaneda, who was anything but special for most  of his first year at Akron? Or maybe we just go for another Prince Mosengo. Risk vs. Reward.

 

If you can guarantee me a 13 ppg player on 40%+ shooting from 2 & 3 (even upper 30s for 3 pt percentage), I'll take Ali Ali back. 

 

If he returns to 7 ppg on 40% 2 pt and 30% 3 pt (averaging out his 2020-21 & 2022-23 seasons), I'd rather take my risk on a transfer that could be here for more than one season and most likely put up similar or better numbers. 

[kreed5120]

He would be ~50% from 2 point range if you averaged those two seasons. The worst he's ever shot from 2-point range is .478. 

 

I'm with @LoyalZIP, I don't expect him to shoot >40% from 3, but something in the 35%-38% range is good enough. Combine that with him being a career 49.5% from 2 and that's efficient enough. Especially for a guy that often times has to create his own shots so he doesn't have the luxury of padding his efficiency numbers with easy looks.

 

Edit: Also, Ali is already back so there is no 'taking him back'. It's more a matter of if you're going to cheer for him and Akron to succeed or not. Reality is Akron needs something close to the 21-22 Ali if we want to make noise come March. We lack perimeter players that have shown the ability to consistently create their own offense.

Edited May 4, 2023 by kreed5120

[Zipmeister]

1 hour ago, NWAkron said:

From our friend in  the Hocking Hills:

 

"RE: 2023 Transfer Portal

Posted: 5/4/2023 10:54:23 AM 

It’s official, Ali Ali back to Akron *sighs*.

https://twitter.com/jeffborzello/status/16541351678820802..."

 

Someone should tell the folks at Butler. As of 1:00 this afternoon ALI is still on their roster.

https://butlersports.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster

[Let'sGoZips94]

23 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

He would be ~50% from 2 point range if you averaged those two seasons. The worst he's ever shot from 2-point range is .478. 

 

I'm with @LoyalZIP, I don't expect him to shoot >40% from 3, but something in the 35%-38% range is good enough. Combine that with him being a career 49.5% from 2 and that's efficient enough. Especially for a guy that often times has to create his own shots so he doesn't have the luxury of padding his efficiency numbers with easy looks.

 

Edit: Also, Ali is already back so there is no 'taking him back'. It's more a matter of if you're going to cheer for him and Akron to succeed or not. Reality is Akron needs something close to the 21-22 Ali if we want to make noise come March. We lack perimeter players that have shown the ability to consistently create their own offense.

 

Which is why we need him to return to 2021-22 form.

 

In 2021-22, part of what made Ali Ali productive was he had 241 2PA vs 118 3PA. In his other 3 seasons, he has taken pretty much an equal number of 2PA vs 3PA, with his 3 pt percentages being  23%, 34%, 40% (2021-22) and 25%. 

 

I will always root for Akron's success, which this year means rooting for Ali Ali to return to 2021-22 form (minus the possession killing back-down offense). It's very fair to have reservations about a guy who has had 1 standout year during a 4 year college career, left your program when you needed him, and is coming back with only 1 year of eligibility. 

 

Go Zips.

[zippy5]

This is a dumb conversation. We could point to pretty much any current Zip and say we'd take their 2022 production over their 2021 and previous production. It's called experience and growing up. I'd hope they were all better last year than the year before, and hopefully better next year than last year.

Edited May 4, 2023 by zippy5

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 minute ago, zippy5 said:

This is a dumb conversation. We could point to pretty much any current Zip and say we'd take their 2022 production over their 2021 and previous production. It's called experience and growing up. I'd hope they were all better last year than the year before, and hopefully better next year than last year.

 

It's a pretty valid conversation. Breaking down how an incoming player fits onto this Zips squad is a key component to a fan forum. 

 

If Ali Ali went to Butler and came anywhere near his 2021-22 production, 1) he probably wouldn't be coming back and 2) that would validate your thought of experience & growing up equating to better production YOY. 

 

He didn't. Therefore, the door is open to question which Ali Ali we will be getting. 

[1981 grad]

It is pretty simple that his production was down because he was playing against better competition in the Big East than he had in the MAC.  I expect his stats will improve as he has another year against lesser competition.

[zippy5]

He was also hurt for a good part of the year.

 

I hope we get 2022-2023 Enrique by the way, and not the 2020-2021 version.

[LoyalZIP]

46 minutes ago, zippy5 said:

He was also hurt for a good part of the year.

 

I hope we get 2022-2023 Enrique by the way, and not the 2020-2021 version.

While we’re on the topic, I am particularly a fan of getting 2021-2022 Mikal Dawson as opposed to 2022-2023 Mikal Dawson

[Blue & Gold]

43 minutes ago, 1981 grad said:

It is pretty simple that his production was down because he was playing against better competition in the Big East than he had in the MAC.  I expect his stats will improve as he has another year against lesser competition.

Just as significant I'd say is that he forsook an incredible comfort level at Akron. At Akron he had a familiarity with his teammates, familiarity with his coaches, familiarity with the offensive and defensive schemes, not to mention a comfort level with the U as a whole.  Additionally, at Akron, Groce had given him a perpetual green light to shoot as well as an incredibly long leash. None of which he would have enjoyed at Butler.  

[Let'sGoZips94]

1 hour ago, 1981 grad said:

It is pretty simple that his production was down because he was playing against better competition in the Big East than he had in the MAC.  I expect his stats will improve as he has another year against lesser competition.

 

Just like he no-showed against UCLA?

 

Didn't realize better competition came with different-size baskets...

 

Saying his stats dropped dramatically because of the better competition isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

 

 

Edit: I'll back off now. I don't mean to be harsh towards Ali Ali. The wound of him leaving when we needed him is still open. Really hoping he has the mentality of having to earn his PT at Akron again.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Let'sGoZips94

[kreed5120]

1 hour ago, 1981 grad said:

It is pretty simple that his production was down because he was playing against better competition in the Big East than he had in the MAC.  I expect his stats will improve as he has another year against lesser competition.

I feel it was more than just that. He missed a huge part of camp and the early part of the season because of injury. Considering he was learning an entirely new offense, asked to play a different position/role, and had no prior experience playing with any of his teammates missing a huge chunk of the preseason & OOC play impacted his performance.

 

Frankly, I feel his prior performance under Groce is a better barometer to measure what to expect. Groce already knows how to get the most out of Ali and outside of Castaneda, this core team is pretty much the same. I'd be shocked if Ali doesn't at least make All-MAC consideration.

[kreed5120]

19 minutes ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Just like he no-showed against UCLA?

 

Didn't realize better competition came with different-size baskets...

 

Saying his stats dropped dramatically because of the better competition isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

 

Really hoping he has the mentality of having to earn his PT at Akron again.

I don't know why you try to cherry pick whatever fits your narative. We wouldn't have even made it past Buffalo in the 1st round of the MAC tournament without him. Not to mention, he hit the clutch 3, while being fouled, against a ranked Ohio State that should have won us the game had we not had a defensive breakdown at the other end.

 

Nobody is immune from having a bad game.

[monrowe]

1 hour ago, 1981 grad said:

It is pretty simple that his production was down because he was playing against better competition in the Big East than he had in the MAC.  I expect his stats will improve as he has another year against lesser competition.

I went to a Big East game and watched him play he didn’t look overwhelmed to me.Ali actually looked 20 pounds bigger and stronger.

[Let'sGoZips94]

51 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

I don't know why you try to cherry pick whatever fits your narative. We wouldn't have even made it past Buffalo in the 1st round of the MAC tournament without him. Not to mention, he hit the clutch 3, while being fouled, against a ranked Ohio State that should have won us the game had we not had a defensive breakdown at the other end.

 

Nobody is immune from having a bad game.

 

Why was he a key factor in those games? He hit his 3s. He shot 40.7% that year from 3. His worst games occurred when he didn't hit from beyond the arc. Understandable. However...

 

He's a career 34.9% 3PT shooter. If Ali Ali doesn't produce like he did in 2021-22, are people as excited about him coming back? If you remove 2021-22, he's a career 27.6% 3PT shooter. That's 3 years of sub-35%, with 2 years of sub-30% including this past year which was 25.5%. The ball and hoop don't really change, no matter where you play in D1 college basketball. 

 

If we get 35%+ 3 PT shooting from Ali Ali, wonderful. That level of game fills massive voids we had from last year.

 

If we get 30% or less, his scoring seemingly comes from dribbling the air out of the ball and hitting layups/mid-range jump shots for 6-8 ppg. Where does that level of game fit on this team?

 

My expectations are tempered. I hope Ali Ali is able to fire on all cylinders this year. I have my reservations. Does he try to hard & press during his comeback tour? If he struggles, has he grown enough mentally to not get as down as he used to?

[LoyalZIP]

[NWAkron]

@ 20 seconds AND at 1 minute 8 seconds.  

[72 Roo]

7 hours ago, Reslife4Life said:

Zips Nation you are welcome! It is painfully obvious that my hunger strike was the tipping point that brought this young man back into the fold. Groce is so grateful to me that I now have a seat on the bench next to Bud Wentz. Rest assured I am staying humble about my unselfish sacrifice. Yet my wife is disappointed Ali did not delay longer. She wanted to see a slimmer version of 72Roo.  Can't keep everyone happy.

[Spin]

Ken Carman seemed genuinely excited about Ali Ali coming back…

[LoyalZIP]

8 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

@ 20 seconds AND at 1 minute 8 seconds.  

I’m sorry, but as a program that routinely makes deep runs in the NCAA tournament, we just can’t afford to keep guys like Ali around. He cost us a tournament win for God’s sakes. There are dozens if not hundreds of higher quality players in the portal that would be happy to come to Akron for that final roster spot!

[LoyalZIP]

1 minute ago, Spin said:

Ken Carman seemed genuinely excited about Ali Ali coming back…

Just saw a 20 second bit on WKYC as well. Much easier to get these spots when the local baseball team is terrible. 

[Let'sGoZips94]

 

13.5 ppg last year for Balls.

 

[clarkwgriswold]

5 hours ago, 1981 grad said:

It is pretty simple that his production was down because he was playing against better competition in the Big East than he had in the MAC.  I expect his stats will improve as he has another year against lesser competition.

Agreed.  He also had injury issues that slowed him down.

[RoyalBlu]

3 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

 

Why was he a key factor in those games? He hit his 3s. He shot 40.7% that year from 3. His worst games occurred when he didn't hit from beyond the arc. Understandable. However...

 

He's a career 34.9% 3PT shooter. If Ali Ali doesn't produce like he did in 2021-22, are people as excited about him coming back? If you remove 2021-22, he's a career 27.6% 3PT shooter. That's 3 years of sub-35%, with 2 years of sub-30% including this past year which was 25.5%. The ball and hoop don't really change, no matter where you play in D1 college basketball. 

 

If we get 35%+ 3 PT shooting from Ali Ali, wonderful. That level of game fills massive voids we had from last year.

 

If we get 30% or less, his scoring seemingly comes from dribbling the air out of the ball and hitting layups/mid-range jump shots for 6-8 ppg. Where does that level of game fit on this team?

 

My expectations are tempered. I hope Ali Ali is able to fire on all cylinders this year. I have my reservations. Does he try to hard & press during his comeback tour? If he struggles, has he grown enough mentally to not get as down as he used to?

Hitting a great 3-point percentage isn't the be all, end all for how he actually delivers. Does he hit the ones that really matter will be the key, and does he make up for poor 3-pt shooting with rebounds, assists and defense? He has to be an all-around player and not just an offensive trigger.

[Blue & Gold]

Ali is tremendously versatile on defense.  If Dawson is back to his vintage (& healthy 🤞🙏)  junkyard dog form, Ali, Dawson, Freeman & Tribble - we'll be the best defensive team in the MAC.  Z-Fence!